Dalian Zhixing
vs
Sichuan Jiuniu
Super League prediction
Our model says: Dalian Zhixing 2–1 Sichuan Jiuniu
The model makes it 44% Dalian Zhixing, 28% draw, 28% Sichuan Jiuniu — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dalian Zhixing 1.76, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.19.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Dalian Zhixing are 2nd on 40 points from 26 games; Sichuan Jiuniu are 11th on 28 points from 26 games — Super League.
- Dalian Zhixing are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Qingdao Jonoon.
- Sichuan Jiuniu are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Shandong Luneng.
- Last 3 meetings: Dalian Zhixing 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 May 2026, ended Sichuan Jiuniu 1–1 Dalian Zhixing.
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dalian Zhixing at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Dalian Zhixing
- W2-1Qingdao Jonoon5 September 2026
- D1-1Beijing Guoan28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Chongqing Tongliang Long23 August 2026
- D1-1away to SHANGHAI SIPG19 August 2026
- L1-3away to Yunnan Yukun15 August 2026
Sichuan Jiuniu
- D1-1away to Shandong Luneng5 September 2026
- L0-1SHANGHAI SIPG28 August 2026
- D1-1Hangzhou Greentown22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Shenyang Urban15 August 2026
- L0-4away to Beijing Guoan7 August 2026
What these results say
- Dalian Zhixing scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dalian Zhixing conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Dalian Zhixing.
- Sichuan Jiuniu conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sichuan Jiuniu failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 40 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu
- 19 May 2026Sichuan Jiuniu 1–1 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
- 14 September 2025Dalian Zhixing 2–1 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 26 April 2025Sichuan Jiuniu 1–1 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
Leading scorers: Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu
Dalian Zhixing
- N. Stanciu9 goals4 assists
Sichuan Jiuniu
- Wesley Moraes10 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dalian Zhixing carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.17 for Sichuan Jiuniu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.19 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dalian Zhixing rate 0.49 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sichuan Jiuniu rate 0.48 and 1.89.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dalian Zhixing the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing against 1.19 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Dalian Zhixing's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.89 for Sichuan Jiuniu.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dalian Zhixing at home · Sichuan Jiuniu away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Dalian Zhixing 26, Sichuan Jiuniu 26.
Dalian Zhixing score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Sichuan Jiuniu have let in 4 there.
Sichuan Jiuniu score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Dalian Zhixing have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dalian Zhixing
- at Chengdu Better City24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 23%
- vs Tianjin Teda8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 37%
Sichuan Jiuniu
- vs Shanghai Shenhua24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 36%
- at Qingdao Jonoon8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.