Shandong Luneng
vs
Hangzhou Greentown
Super League prediction
Our model says: Shandong Luneng 2–1 Hangzhou Greentown
The model makes it 44% Shandong Luneng, 25% draw, 31% Hangzhou Greentown — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Shandong Luneng 2.38, Hangzhou Greentown 1.78.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Shandong Luneng are 6th on 37 points from 26 games; Hangzhou Greentown are 10th on 31 points from 26 games — Super League.
- Shandong Luneng have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sichuan Jiuniu.
- Hangzhou Greentown have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Wuhan Three Towns.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 20 May 2026, ended Hangzhou Greentown 4–1 Shandong Luneng.
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shandong Luneng at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown
Shandong Luneng
- D1-1Sichuan Jiuniu5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Shanghai Shenhua28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Qingdao Youth Island22 August 2026
- W3-1Qingdao Jonoon14 August 2026
- W2-1Tianjin Teda9 August 2026
Hangzhou Greentown
- W4-1Wuhan Three Towns18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Tianjin Teda6 September 2026
- W6-0Yunnan Yukun29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sichuan Jiuniu22 August 2026
- L2-3Chengdu Better City15 August 2026
What these results say
- Shandong Luneng conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Shandong Luneng scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Shandong Luneng.
- Hangzhou Greentown scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hangzhou Greentown conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hangzhou Greentown had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 43 | +3 | 37 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 45 | 43 | +2 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown
- 20 May 2026Hangzhou Greentown 4–1 Shandong LunengSuper League
- 18 October 2025Hangzhou Greentown 2–2 Shandong LunengSuper League
- 10 May 2025Shandong Luneng 4–2 Hangzhou GreentownSuper League
- 27 October 2024Hangzhou Greentown 3–3 Shandong LunengSuper League
- 25 May 2024Shandong Luneng 3–0 Hangzhou GreentownSuper League
- 22 July 2023Hangzhou Greentown 2–1 Shandong LunengSuper League
Leading scorers: Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown
Shandong Luneng
- Cryzan16 goals6 assists
- Zeca9 goals4 assists
Hangzhou Greentown
- A. Mitriță10 goals12 assists
- M. Tolić9 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shandong Luneng carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.33 for Hangzhou Greentown. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.38 goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.78 for Hangzhou Greentown. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shandong Luneng rate 0.65 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hangzhou Greentown rate 0.67 and 1.93.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shandong Luneng the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Shandong Luneng against 1.78 for Hangzhou Greentown. Shandong Luneng's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.93 for Hangzhou Greentown.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shandong Luneng at home · Hangzhou Greentown away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Shandong Luneng 26, Hangzhou Greentown 26.
Hangzhou Greentown score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Shandong Luneng have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Shandong Luneng
- at Wuhan Three Towns24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 37%
- vs Chengdu Better City8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 38%
Hangzhou Greentown
- at Shenyang Urban24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 39%
- vs Henan Jianye8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.