Hapoel Tel Aviv
vs
Ironi Tiberias
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–0 Ironi Tiberias
The model makes it 49% Hapoel Tel Aviv, 28% draw, 23% Ironi Tiberias — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.82, Ironi Tiberias 0.90.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Hapoel Tel Aviv are 3rd on 10 points from 5 games; Ironi Tiberias are bottom on 1 point from 5 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Hapoel Petah Tikva.
- Ironi Tiberias have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Maccabi Haifa.
- Last 3 meetings: Hapoel Tel Aviv 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Ironi Tiberias 0–2 Hapoel Tel Aviv.
All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Tel Aviv at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- W3-0Hapoel Petah Tikva18 September 2026
- L1-4away to Maccabi Tel Aviv14 September 2026
- W4-0Hapoel Ramat Gan7 September 2026
- W3-0Beitar Jerusalem3 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hapoel Haifa30 August 2026
Ironi Tiberias
- L2-3away to Maccabi Haifa19 September 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Jerusalem15 September 2026
- W2-1away to Maccabi Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona29 August 2026
- W1-0Hapoel Petah Tikva22 August 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Tel Aviv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hapoel Tel Aviv had three goals or more.
- Ironi Tiberias scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ironi Tiberias conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias
- 7 February 2026Ironi Tiberias 0–2 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 1 November 2025Hapoel Tel Aviv 2–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 28 December 2024Ironi Tiberias 0–2 Hapoel Tel AvivState Cup
Leading scorers: Hapoel Tel Aviv and Ironi Tiberias
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- E. Boateng2 goals2 assists
- D. Owusu2 goals
Ironi Tiberias
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hapoel Tel Aviv carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.34 for Ironi Tiberias. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 0.90 for Ironi Tiberias. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Tel Aviv rate 0.69 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ironi Tiberias rate 0.59 and 1.65.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Tel Aviv the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv against 0.90 for Ironi Tiberias. Hapoel Tel Aviv's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.65 for Ironi Tiberias.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hapoel Tel Aviv at home · Ironi Tiberias away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Hapoel Tel Aviv 5, Ironi Tiberias 5.
Ironi Tiberias score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Hapoel Tel Aviv have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- at Hapoel Jerusalem24 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 46%
- vs Maccabi Haifa31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 40%
- at Hapoel Beer Sheva7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 33%
- at Maccabi Petah Tikva28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 51%
Ironi Tiberias
- vs Maccabi Netanya24 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 38%
- at Bnei Sakhnin31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 42%
- vs Beitar Jerusalem7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 30%
- at Hapoel Haifa28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.