Universidad Catolica Quito
vs
Macara
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Universidad Catolica Quito 2–1 Macara
The model makes it 45% Universidad Catolica Quito, 27% draw, 28% Macara — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Universidad Catolica Quito 2.01, Macara 1.32.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Universidad Catolica Quito are 3rd on 51 points from 31 games; Macara are 2nd on 54 points from 31 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Universidad Catolica Quito have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to LDU de Quito.
- Macara have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Aucas.
- Last 6 meetings: Universidad Catolica Quito 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 August 2026, ended Macara 1–1 Universidad Catolica Quito.
All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Universidad Catolica Quito vs Macara
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universidad Catolica Quito at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Universidad Catolica Quito vs Macara
Universidad Catolica Quito
- L1-2away to LDU de Quito20 September 2026
- W2-1Orense SC15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Delfin SC6 September 2026
- D1-1Aucas3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Independiente del Valle29 August 2026
Macara
- W2-1away to Aucas19 September 2026
- W1-0Emelec13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Independiente del Valle5 September 2026
- W4-3Manta FC2 September 2026
- W2-1away to Orense SC30 August 2026
What these results say
- Universidad Catolica Quito scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica Quito conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Universidad Catolica Quito.
- Macara scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Macara won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Macara conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universidad Catolica Quito | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 52 | 29 | +23 | 51 |
| 2 | Macara | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 34 | +9 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad Catolica Quito vs Macara
- 18 August 2026Macara 1–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 24 April 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 4–0 MacaraLiga Pro
- 27 July 2025Macara 1–4 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 6 April 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 1–0 MacaraLiga Pro
- 30 November 2024Macara 1–2 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 2 June 2024Universidad Catolica Quito 3–0 MacaraLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Universidad Catolica Quito and Macara
Universidad Catolica Quito
- J. Fajardo10 goals3 assists
- M. Alonso8 goals3 assists
- B. Palacios6 goals1 assist
Macara
- F. Posse12 goals5 assists
- A. Campana10 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Universidad Catolica Quito carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.61 for Macara. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Universidad Catolica Quito and 1.32 for Macara. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universidad Catolica Quito rate 0.90 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Macara rate 0.84 and 1.37.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Macara, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universidad Catolica Quito the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Universidad Catolica Quito against 1.32 for Macara. Universidad Catolica Quito's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.37 for Macara.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universidad Catolica Quito at home · Macara away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Universidad Catolica Quito 31, Macara 31.
Universidad Catolica Quito score most often in the 46–60 minute window (13 goals); Macara have let in 7 there.
Macara score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Universidad Catolica Quito have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Universidad Catolica Quito
- at Barcelona SC18 Oct · Liga Prowin 30%
- at Independiente del Valle25 Oct · Liga Prowin 26%
- vs Aucas1 Nov · Liga Prowin 48%
- at Macara8 Nov · Liga Prowin 33%
- vs Barcelona SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 42%
Macara
- vs Independiente del Valle18 Oct · Liga Prowin 36%
- at LDU de Quito25 Oct · Liga Prowin 30%
- vs Barcelona SC1 Nov · Liga Prowin 39%
- vs Universidad Catolica Quito8 Nov · Liga Prowin 40%
- at Independiente del Valle22 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.