Radomiak Radom
vs
Zaglebie Lubin
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 27% Radomiak Radom, 22% draw, 51% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 3.70, 4.55 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.49, Zaglebie Lubin 2.08.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Radomiak Radom
- L1-3Gornik Zabrze8 August 2026
- L1-3away to GKS Katowice2 August 2026
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków24 July 2026
Zaglebie Lubin
- L1-3away to Legia Warszawa2 August 2026
- W2-0Piast Gliwice27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Radomiak Radom | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 10 | Zaglebie Lubin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Radomiak Radom
- J. Grzesik1 goals1 assists
Zaglebie Lubin
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Radomiak Radom carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.6 for Zaglebie Lubin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Radomiak Radom W-L-L; Zaglebie Lubin W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Radomiak Radom and 2.08 for Zaglebie Lubin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radomiak Radom rate 0.61 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zaglebie Lubin rate 0.79 and 1.29.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zaglebie Lubin the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Radomiak Radom against 2.08 for Zaglebie Lubin. Radomiak Radom's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.29 for Zaglebie Lubin.