GIL Vicente
vs
FC Porto
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: GIL Vicente 0–1 FC Porto
The model makes it 17% GIL Vicente, 27% draw, 56% FC Porto — fair odds of 5.88, 3.70 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: GIL Vicente 0.70, FC Porto 1.69.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FC Porto are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- GIL Vicente are 7th on 11 points from 7 games; FC Porto are top on 24 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- GIL Vicente have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Moreirense.
- FC Porto are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Maritimo.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Porto 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 July 2026, ended GIL Vicente 1–0 FC Porto.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: GIL Vicente vs FC Porto
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into GIL Vicente vs FC Porto
GIL Vicente
- W1-0away to Moreirense9 October 2026
- D1-1Maritimo19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Benfica13 September 2026
- L0-1Academico Viseu6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Famalicao30 August 2026
FC Porto
- W2-1away to Maritimo10 October 2026
- W3-1Benfica20 September 2026
- W4-1away to Casa Pia12 September 2026
- W2-1Moreirense4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Academico Viseu29 August 2026
What these results say
- GIL Vicente failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for GIL Vicente had two goals or fewer.
- FC Porto won every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Porto had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 11 |
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
GIL Vicente
Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today
FC Porto
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 59% today
From our Primeira Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: GIL Vicente vs FC Porto
- 22 July 2026GIL Vicente 1–0 FC PortoFriendlies Clubs
- 26 January 2026FC Porto 3–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 18 August 2025GIL Vicente 0–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 19 January 2025GIL Vicente 3–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 10 August 2024FC Porto 3–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 25 February 2024GIL Vicente 1–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: GIL Vicente and FC Porto
GIL Vicente
GoalsAssists
- Héctor Hernández31
FC Porto
GoalsAssists
- Gabri Veiga43
- André Silva32
- Borja Sainz30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
GIL Vicente carry a model rating of 6.77 against 7.3 for FC Porto. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.70 goals for GIL Vicente and 1.69 for FC Porto. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
GIL Vicente rate 0.78 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Porto rate 1.44 and 0.59.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives GIL Vicente a 0% chance of the title and FC Porto 59%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.70 expected goals for GIL Vicente against 1.69 for FC Porto. GIL Vicente's attack/defence rating is 0.78/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.44/0.59 for FC Porto.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
GIL Vicente at home · FC Porto away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: GIL Vicente 7, FC Porto 8.
FC Porto score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); GIL Vicente have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
GIL Vicente
- vs Vitória SC2 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 44%
- at Santa Clara8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 26%
- vs Estoril29 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 47%
- at Estrela6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 35%
FC Porto
- vs Academico Viseu28 Oct · Taça da Ligawin 69%
- vs Estoril31 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 75%
- vs Napoli4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 53%
- at Vitória SC8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 63%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.