Hoffenheim II
vs
Verl
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Hoffenheim II 2–1 Verl
The model makes it 38% Hoffenheim II, 28% draw, 34% Verl — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hoffenheim II 1.56, Verl 1.40.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Hoffenheim II are 5th on 13 points from 7 games; Verl are 11th on 10 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- Hoffenheim II are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-0 win at home to SV Meppen.
- Verl are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Würzburger Kickers.
- Last 2 meetings: Verl 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Verl 3–1 Hoffenheim II.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hoffenheim II vs Verl
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hoffenheim II at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hoffenheim II vs Verl
Hoffenheim II
- W1-0SV Meppen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0416 September 2026
- D2-2Fortuna Köln13 September 2026
- L0-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach6 September 2026
- W5-1SSV Jahn Regensburg29 August 2026
Verl
- W2-1Würzburger Kickers18 September 2026
- D1-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach15 September 2026
- W2-1SV Meppen12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Waldhof Mannheim5 September 2026
- L1-2Fortuna Köln29 August 2026
What these results say
- Hoffenheim II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hoffenheim II conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Verl scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Verl conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Verl.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 11 | Verl | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hoffenheim II vs Verl
- 14 February 2026Verl 3–1 Hoffenheim II3. Liga
- 13 September 2025Hoffenheim II 2–4 Verl3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hoffenheim II carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.33 for Verl. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Hoffenheim II and 1.40 for Verl. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hoffenheim II rate 0.57 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Verl rate 0.59 and 1.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hoffenheim II a 2.1% chance of the title and Verl 2.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hoffenheim II the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Hoffenheim II against 1.40 for Verl. Hoffenheim II's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.68 for Verl.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hoffenheim II at home · Verl away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Hoffenheim II 7, Verl 7.
Hoffenheim II score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Verl have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Hoffenheim II
- at Waldhof Mannheim24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 33%
- vs FC Viktoria Köln31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 37%
- at Würzburger Kickers7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 33%
Verl
- at FC Viktoria Köln24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 29%
- vs SV Wehen31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 49%
- at Stuttgart II7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.