FC Vaduz
vs
Inter Turku
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 56% FC Vaduz, 27% draw, 17% Inter Turku — fair odds of 1.79, 3.70 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: FC Vaduz 1.52, Inter Turku 0.73.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Vaduz
- L2-3away to FC Sion9 August 2026
- L2-3FC St. Gallen2 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Lugano26 July 2026
Inter Turku
- D0-0Lahti9 August 2026
- W1-0away to VPS2 August 2026
- L1-2Gnistan26 July 2026
- D0-0away to FF Jaro19 July 2026
- W2-0away to Mariehamn27 June 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | FC Vaduz | Super League | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 0 |
| 2 | Inter Turku | Veikkausliiga | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 34 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Vaduz carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.35 for Inter Turku. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Vaduz L-L-L; Inter Turku W-D-L-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for FC Vaduz and 0.73 for Inter Turku. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Vaduz rate 0.73 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter Turku rate 0.31 and 1.10.
That points to 39% for over two and a half goals and 41% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (12%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Vaduz the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Vaduz against 0.73 for Inter Turku. FC Vaduz's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.31/1.1 for Inter Turku.