FC Voluntari
vs
Petrolul Ploiesti
Liga I prediction
The model makes it 43% FC Voluntari, 27% draw, 30% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Voluntari 1.45, Petrolul Ploiesti 1.16.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Voluntari
- L0-4away to Dinamo Bucuresti8 August 2026
- W1-0Uta Arad1 August 2026
- L0-5away to CFR 1907 Cluj27 July 2026
- D2-2FC Botosani17 July 2026
Petrolul Ploiesti
- W1-0Oțelul9 August 2026
- L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Arges Pitesti24 July 2026
- W1-0Dinamo Bucuresti19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Voluntari | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Voluntari carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.23 for Petrolul Ploiesti. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Voluntari D-L-W-L; Petrolul Ploiesti W-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for FC Voluntari and 1.16 for Petrolul Ploiesti. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Voluntari rate 0.51 in attack and 2.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Petrolul Ploiesti rate 0.41 and 1.50.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Voluntari the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for FC Voluntari against 1.16 for Petrolul Ploiesti. FC Voluntari's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.5 for Petrolul Ploiesti.