FC St. Gallen
vs
FC Thun
Super League prediction
The model makes it 68% FC St. Gallen, 16% draw, 16% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.47, 6.25 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: FC St. Gallen 2.86, FC Thun 1.38.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC St. Gallen
- D2-2FC Luzern9 August 2026
- W3-2away to FC Vaduz2 August 2026
- W2-1FC Zurich26 July 2026
FC Thun
- L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
- L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
- W3-1away to FC Luzern25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC St. Gallen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
FC St. Gallen
- E. Owusu2 goals
FC Thun
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC St. Gallen carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.34 for FC Thun. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC St. Gallen W-W-D; FC Thun W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.86 goals for FC St. Gallen and 1.38 for FC Thun. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC St. Gallen rate 0.87 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Thun rate 0.63 and 1.74.
That points to 79% for over two and a half goals and 71% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC St. Gallen the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.86 expected goals for FC St. Gallen against 1.38 for FC Thun. FC St. Gallen's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.74 for FC Thun.