FC Sion
vs
FC Lugano
Super League prediction
The model makes it 48% FC Sion, 22% draw, 30% FC Lugano — fair odds of 2.08, 4.55 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Sion 2.03, FC Lugano 1.59.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Sion
- W3-2FC Vaduz9 August 2026
- W3-0FC Luzern2 August 2026
- L2-4away to BSC Young Boys26 July 2026
FC Lugano
- W5-0FC Zurich9 August 2026
- W4-1away to Grasshoppers2 August 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Sion | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
FC Sion
- Winsley Boteli Mokango2 goals1 assists
- D. Rrudhani2 goals
FC Lugano
- K. Behrens2 goals1 assists
- D. Moncada2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Sion carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.63 for FC Lugano. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Sion L-W-W; FC Lugano W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for FC Sion and 1.59 for FC Lugano. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Sion rate 0.72 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Lugano rate 0.94 and 1.49.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Lugano, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Sion the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for FC Sion against 1.59 for FC Lugano. FC Sion's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.49 for FC Lugano.