FC Sion vs FC Lugano Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Sion 1-2 FC Lugano.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% FC Sion, 28% draw, 31% FC Lugano — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Swiss Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Sion at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Sion vs FC Lugano
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. RacioppiG
- 14N. LavanchyD
- 5N. SowD
- 17J. KronigD
- 6Marquinhos CiprianoD
- 88A. KabacalmanM
- 29T. BerdayesM
- 37F. SyllaM
- 8BaltazarM
- 77D. RrudhaniM
- 13W. BoteliF
- 12F. RubertoG
- 38R. KesslerD
- 20N. HeftiD
- 10B. KololliM
- 21L. ChipperfieldM
- 33R. NivokaziF
- 19F. SurdezF
- 7I. ChouarefF
- 9J. LukembilaF
- 16D. von BallmoosG
- 6A. PapadopoulosD
- 17L. MaiD
- 18J. BichselD
- 8A. GrgicM
- 46M. ZanottiM
- 14A. KendouciM
- 27D. Dos SantosM
- 21Y. CimignaniM
- 30D. MoncadaF
- 24E. PihlstromF
- 28F. GebhardtG
- 4D. KelvinD
- 2B. KarimovD
- 3H. DelcroixD
- 44CarboneD
- 25U. BislimiM
- 23G. AjdinM
- 22B. D. Castro EspinosaF
- 11R. SteffenF
Form going into FC Sion vs FC Lugano
FC Sion
- L3-5away to Ajax27 August 2026
- L2-4Ajax20 August 2026
- W2-1FC Noah13 August 2026
- W3-2FC Vaduz9 August 2026
- D2-2away to FC Noah6 August 2026
FC Lugano
- D1-1away to Maccabi Tel Aviv27 August 2026
- W2-1Maccabi Tel Aviv20 August 2026
- D2-2away to NSI Runavik13 August 2026
- W5-0FC Zurich9 August 2026
- W2-0NSI Runavik6 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Sion scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Sion conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Sion had three goals or more.
- FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Sion | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 19 |
| 1 | FC Lugano | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Sion vs FC Lugano
- 30 August 2026FC Sion 1–2 FC LuganoSuper League
- 14 May 2026FC Sion 2–2 FC LuganoSuper League
- 4 March 2026FC Lugano 2–1 FC SionSuper League
- 29 November 2025FC Lugano 1–1 FC SionSuper League
- 3 August 2025FC Sion 4–0 FC LuganoSuper League
- 9 March 2025FC Sion 2–1 FC LuganoSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Sion and FC Lugano
FC Sion
- Winsley Boteli Mokango6 goals4 assists
- J. Lukembila3 goals4 assists
FC Lugano
- D. Moncada3 goals1 assist
- H. Delcroix3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.