FC Schalke 04
vs
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FC Schalke 04 0–1 RB Leipzig
The model makes it 24% FC Schalke 04, 27% draw, 49% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Schalke 04 0.98, RB Leipzig 1.63.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: RB Leipzig are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- FC Schalke 04 are 14th on 5 points from 6 games; RB Leipzig are 7th on 9 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- FC Schalke 04 are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to FSV Mainz 05.
- RB Leipzig have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Bayern München.
- Last 6 meetings: RB Leipzig 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 May 2023, ended RB Leipzig 4–2 FC Schalke 04.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
Has the model earned this number?
It puts RB Leipzig at 49% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
FC Schalke 04
- L0-1FSV Mainz 0517 October 2026
- L1-2away to SC Freiburg11 October 2026
- D0-0SV Elversberg20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Union Berlin11 September 2026
- D0-0Bayern München5 September 2026
RB Leipzig
- L1-6away to Bayern München17 October 2026
- W6-0Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen20 September 2026
- W5-0Hamburger SV13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Werder Bremen5 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Schalke 04 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- RB Leipzig scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for RB Leipzig had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Schalke 04
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
RB Leipzig
Chance to finish in the top four · 43% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
- 27 May 2023RB Leipzig 4–2 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 24 January 2023FC Schalke 04 1–6 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 6 February 2021FC Schalke 04 0–3 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 3 October 2020RB Leipzig 4–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 22 February 2020FC Schalke 04 0–5 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 28 September 2019RB Leipzig 1–3 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig
FC Schalke 04
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
RB Leipzig
GoalsAssists
- C. Nkunku41
- A. Nusa33
- T. Gomis22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Schalke 04 carry a model rating of 6.78 against 7.05 for RB Leipzig. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.98 goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.63 for RB Leipzig. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Schalke 04 rate 0.60 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; RB Leipzig rate 1.33 and 0.89.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Schalke 04 a 0% chance of the title and RB Leipzig 1.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Leipzig the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 against 1.63 for RB Leipzig. FC Schalke 04's attack/defence rating is 0.6/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.33/0.89 for RB Leipzig.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Schalke 04 at home · RB Leipzig away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: FC Schalke 04 6, RB Leipzig 5.
FC Schalke 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); RB Leipzig have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Schalke 04
- at 1899 Hoffenheim8 Nov · Bundesligawin 28%
- vs VfB Stuttgart21 Nov · Bundesligawin 28%
- at SC Paderborn 0728 Nov · Bundesligawin 31%
- vs Borussia Dortmund5 Dec · Bundesligawin 18%
RB Leipzig
- vs Manchester City4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 33%
- vs FC Augsburg7 Nov · Bundesligawin 56%
- at Union Berlin21 Nov · Bundesligawin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.