Arouca
vs
Rio Ave
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Arouca 2–0 Rio Ave
The model makes it 58% Arouca, 24% draw, 18% Rio Ave — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Arouca 1.95, Rio Ave 0.86.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Arouca are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Arouca's rating is built from 45 Primeira Liga matches and Rio Ave's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 714 matches.
Key facts
- Arouca are 5th on 20 points from 11 games; Rio Ave are 17th on 7 points from 11 games — Primeira Liga.
- Arouca have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Famalicao.
- Rio Ave are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to SC Braga.
- Last 6 meetings: Rio Ave 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 July 2026, ended Rio Ave 2–1 Arouca.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arouca vs Rio Ave
Has the model earned this number?
Arouca at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Arouca vs Rio Ave
Arouca
Primeira Liga
- L0-1away to Famalicao6 November 2026
- W1-0Nacional1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Alverca24 October 2026
- W1-0Estrela11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Sporting CP19 September 2026
Rio Ave
Primeira Liga
- L0-1SC Braga8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu1 November 2026
- L0-4Famalicao25 October 2026
- W3-2Nacional11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Alverca19 September 2026
What these results say
- Arouca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Arouca had two goals or fewer.
- Rio Ave conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rio Ave failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 20 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rio Ave
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 62% today
From our Primeira Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Arouca vs Rio Ave
- 11 July 2026Rio Ave 2–1 AroucaFriendlies Clubs
- 31 January 2026Rio Ave 0–3 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 23 August 2025Arouca 3–3 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 10 February 2025Arouca 1–1 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 1 September 2024Rio Ave 1–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 20 July 2024Rio Ave 3–2 AroucaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Arouca and Rio Ave
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Rio Ave
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arouca the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Arouca against 0.86 for Rio Ave. Arouca's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.46 for Rio Ave.
How the model reaches 58% for Arouca to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Arouca to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Arouca's ratings add 8 points and Rio Ave's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Arouca's ratings48%+8
- Rio Ave's ratings58%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Arouca at home · Rio Ave away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Arouca 11, Rio Ave 11.
Rio Ave score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Arouca have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Arouca
- at SC Braga5 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 24%
- at Academico Viseu11 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 31%
- vs Casa Pia20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 54%
- at GIL Vicente27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 31%
- vs Benfica10 Jan · Primeira Ligawin 21%
Rio Ave
- vs Casa Pia6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 38%
- at Maritimo12 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 32%
- vs Benfica20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 10%
- at Vitória SC27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 20%
- vs Moreirense10 Jan · Primeira Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.