Pafos
vs
Riga
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Pafos 3–0 Riga
The model makes it 79% Pafos, 14% draw, 7% Riga — fair odds of 1.27, 7.14 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Pafos 3.07, Riga 0.62.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Pafos are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Pafos have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Anorthosis.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pafos vs Riga
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pafos at 79% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pafos vs Riga
Pafos
- W3-1away to Anorthosis11 October 2026
- L0-2AEL18 September 2026
- W1-0away to AEK Larnaca13 September 2026
- D0-0Olympiakos7 September 2026
- W3-0away to Karmiotissa30 August 2026
Riga
- W2-1KI Klaksvik27 August 2026
- D0-0away to KI Klaksvik20 August 2026
- D1-1away to Gyori ETO FC13 August 2026
- W1-0Gyori ETO FC6 August 2026
- W5-2Vardar Skopje28 July 2026
What these results say
- Riga went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Riga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pafos and Riga in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pafos | 1. Division | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Riga has not started the league season yet. Full tables: 1. Division · UEFA Europa Conference League
A clear gap in the ratings
Pafos carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.13 for Riga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.07 goals for Pafos and 0.62 for Riga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pafos rate 0.84 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Riga rate 0.50 and 2.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pafos the highest probability at 79%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.07 expected goals for Pafos against 0.62 for Riga. Pafos's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.12 for Riga.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Pafos
- at Nea Salamis26 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 44%
- at Apollon Limassol31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 31%
- at Twente5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 20%
Riga
- vs FK Jablonec5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 22%
- at Kauno Žalgiris26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 17%
- vs Atalanta10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 8%
- at Borac Banja Luka17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 10%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.