League Stage - 2 · 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Stockhorn Arena, Thun

Our model says: FC Thun 1–2 HNK Hajduk Split

The model makes it 34% FC Thun, 26% draw, 40% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: FC Thun 1.48, HNK Hajduk Split 1.64.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Edge to HNK Hajduk Split: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • FC Thun are 9th in Super League on 10 points from 10 games; HNK Hajduk Split are top in HNL on 19 points from 9 games.
  • FC Thun have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to FC Zurich.
  • HNK Hajduk Split have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Dinamo Zagreb.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split

63%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC Thun win Draw HNK Hajduk Split win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 0–17%
  5. 2–27%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 0–26%

Scores read FC Thun first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 47%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split

FC Thun

  • L2-4away to FC Zurich10 October 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026
  • L2-4Servette FC16 September 2026
  • L0-1Grasshoppers12 September 2026
  • L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026

HNK Hajduk Split

  • W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026
  • L0-3away to HNK Rijeka20 September 2026
  • W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
  • W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Thun conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Thun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
9FC ThunSuper League103161727-1010
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNL9612189+919

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Super League · HNL

Leading scorers: FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split

FC Thun

No player in Super League's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

HNK Hajduk Split

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šego41
  • M. Livaja30
  • A. Sanyang21

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

FC Thun carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.65 for HNK Hajduk Split. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for FC Thun and 1.64 for HNK Hajduk Split. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

FC Thun rate 0.72 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.80 and 1.19.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for FC Thun against 1.64 for HNK Hajduk Split. FC Thun's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.19 for HNK Hajduk Split.

Season stats

FC ThunHNK Hajduk Split
10Matches9
3W 1D 6LRecord6W 1D 2L
17 1.7 per gameGoals scored18 2.0 per game
27 2.7 per gameGoals conceded9 1.0 per game
1 of 10Clean sheets4 of 9
3 of 10Failed to score1 of 9
–Penalties scored1 of 2
23 2.3 per gameYellow cards19 2.1 per game
2Red cards0
4-4-2 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

FC Thun at home · HNK Hajduk Split away

4Played4
0W 1D 3LRecord2W 0D 2L
2–11Goals for – against7–6
1 of 4Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, this season — FC Thun in the Super League, HNK Hajduk Split in the HNL. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: FC Thun 10 in the Super League, HNK Hajduk Split 9 in the HNL.

FC Thun scored 312623
HNK Hajduk Split conceded 023212

FC Thun score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); HNK Hajduk Split have let in 2 there.

HNK Hajduk Split scored 430505
FC Thun conceded 453465

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

FC Thun

HNK Hajduk Split

  • at Istra 196124 Oct · HNLwin 42%
  • vs HNK Gorica31 Oct · HNLwin 61%
  • at Lincoln Red Imps FC5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 50%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.