FC Midtjylland
vs
Randers FC
Superliga prediction
The model makes it 52% FC Midtjylland, 26% draw, 22% Randers FC — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 1.60, Randers FC 0.97.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Midtjylland
- W2-1AC Horsens2 August 2026
- W3-2away to Sonderjyske26 July 2026
Randers FC
- W2-0Lyngby9 August 2026
- L0-1away to FC Nordsjaelland2 August 2026
- D1-1Silkeborg27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | Randers FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
FC Midtjylland
- V. Byskov1 goals2 assists
- Julius Emefile1 goals
- F. Etim1 goals
Randers FC
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Midtjylland carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.47 for Randers FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Midtjylland W-W; Randers FC D-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for FC Midtjylland and 0.97 for Randers FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Midtjylland rate 0.69 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Randers FC rate 0.56 and 1.23.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Midtjylland the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.6 expected goals for FC Midtjylland against 0.97 for Randers FC. FC Midtjylland's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.23 for Randers FC.