FC Botosani
vs
Petrolul Ploiesti
Liga I prediction
Our model says: FC Botosani 1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti
The model makes it 47% FC Botosani, 28% draw, 25% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Botosani 1.53, Petrolul Ploiesti 0.97.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Botosani are 10th on 14 points from 11 games; Petrolul Ploiesti are 4th on 19 points from 11 games — Liga I.
- FC Botosani have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Uta Arad.
- Petrolul Ploiesti have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Farul Constanta.
- Last 6 meetings: Petrolul Ploiesti 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended FC Botosani 1–1 Petrolul Ploiesti.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Botosani vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Botosani at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Botosani vs Petrolul Ploiesti
FC Botosani
- W2-0Uta Arad10 October 2026
- L1-3away to CFR 1907 Cluj19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arges Pitesti13 September 2026
- W5-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Farul Constanta30 August 2026
Petrolul Ploiesti
- L1-3away to Farul Constanta11 October 2026
- W2-0Csikszereda21 September 2026
- D2-2away to FCSB14 September 2026
- W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Universitatea Cluj28 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Botosani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Petrolul Ploiesti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FC Botosani | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 14 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Botosani
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
Petrolul Ploiesti
Chance to finish in the top four · 14% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Botosani vs Petrolul Ploiesti
- 10 May 2026FC Botosani 1–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 7 March 2026FC Botosani 0–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 3 November 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–0 FC BotosaniLiga I
- 14 March 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–2 FC BotosaniLiga I
- 27 January 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 3–1 FC BotosaniLiga I
- 1 September 2024FC Botosani 0–2 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
Leading scorers: FC Botosani and Petrolul Ploiesti
FC Botosani
GoalsAssists
- A. Dumiter60
- S. Mailat42
Petrolul Ploiesti
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Botosani carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.33 for Petrolul Ploiesti. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for FC Botosani and 0.97 for Petrolul Ploiesti. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Botosani rate 0.64 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Petrolul Ploiesti rate 0.56 and 1.60.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Petrolul Ploiesti, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Botosani a 0.1% chance of the title and Petrolul Ploiesti 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Botosani the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for FC Botosani against 0.97 for Petrolul Ploiesti. FC Botosani's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.6 for Petrolul Ploiesti.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Botosani at home · Petrolul Ploiesti away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC BotosaniPetrolul Ploiesti
FC Botosani are 7th after 11 Liga I matches (between 2nd and 14th so far); Petrolul Ploiesti are 4th after 11 (between 2nd and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: FC Botosani 11, Petrolul Ploiesti 11.
FC Botosani score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Petrolul Ploiesti have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Botosani
- at Universitatea Craiova31 Oct · Liga Iwin 13%
- vs Oțelul7 Nov · Liga Iwin 47%
- vs FC Voluntari21 Nov · Liga Iwin 57%
- at Rapid28 Nov · Liga Iwin 20%
Petrolul Ploiesti
- vs CFR 1907 Cluj31 Oct · Liga Iwin 34%
- at Uta Arad7 Nov · Liga Iwin 26%
- at Dinamo Bucuresti21 Nov · Liga Iwin 14%
- vs Arges Pitesti28 Nov · Liga Iwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.