Polessya
vs
Obolon'-Brovar
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Polessya 2–0 Obolon'-Brovar
The model makes it 78% Polessya, 15% draw, 7% Obolon'-Brovar — fair odds of 1.28, 6.67 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Polessya 2.91, Obolon'-Brovar 0.61.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Polessya are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Polessya are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games; Obolon'-Brovar are 15th on 4 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Polessya are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Bukovyna.
- Obolon'-Brovar have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Chornomorets.
- Last 6 meetings: Polessya 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Polessya 3–1 Obolon'-Brovar.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Polessya at 78% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar
Polessya
- D2-2away to Bukovyna11 October 2026
- W1-0Kryvbas KR18 September 2026
- W1-0Livyi Bereh13 September 2026
- W5-1Kudrivka4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Shakhtar Donetsk29 August 2026
Obolon'-Brovar
- D1-1away to Chornomorets18 September 2026
- L1-3away to LNZ Cherkasy12 September 2026
- L0-5away to FC Kharkiv5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Kolos Kovalivka28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Kudrivka15 August 2026
What these results say
- Polessya went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Polessya scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Polessya won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Obolon'-Brovar did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Polessya | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 |
| 15 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Polessya
Chance to finish in the top four · 83% today
Obolon'-Brovar
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 83% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar
- 26 April 2026Polessya 3–1 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
- 25 October 2025Obolon'-Brovar 0–4 PolessyaPremier League
- 28 February 2025Obolon'-Brovar 0–0 PolessyaPremier League
- 25 August 2024Polessya 4–0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
- 16 March 2024Obolon'-Brovar 1–0 PolessyaPremier League
- 2 September 2023Polessya 2–0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
Leading scorers: Polessya and Obolon'-Brovar
Polessya
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Obolon'-Brovar
GoalsAssists
- A. Matkevych11
- S. Sukhanov11
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Polessya carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.06 for Obolon'-Brovar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.91 goals for Polessya and 0.61 for Obolon'-Brovar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Polessya rate 0.86 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Obolon'-Brovar rate 0.43 and 2.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Polessya a 7.6% chance of the title and Obolon'-Brovar 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Polessya the highest probability at 78%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.91 expected goals for Polessya against 0.61 for Obolon'-Brovar. Polessya's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.08 for Obolon'-Brovar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Polessya at home · Obolon'-Brovar away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Polessya 8, Obolon'-Brovar 7.
Polessya score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Obolon'-Brovar have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Polessya
- at Kolos Kovalivka31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- vs Veres Rivne7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 66%
- at LNZ Cherkasy21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Karpaty28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Obolon'-Brovar
- vs Shakhtar Donetsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 8%
- vs Livyi Bereh7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Dynamo Kyiv21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 7%
- vs Zorya Luhansk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.