Estrela
vs
Casa Pia
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Estrela 1–0 Casa Pia
The model makes it 55% Estrela, 25% draw, 20% Casa Pia — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Estrela 1.86, Casa Pia 0.93.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Estrela: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Estrela are 10th on 10 points from 8 games; Casa Pia are 17th on 4 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Estrela are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Arouca.
- Casa Pia have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Santa Clara.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Estrela 1–2 Casa Pia.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Estrela vs Casa Pia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estrela at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Estrela vs Casa Pia
Estrela
- L0-1away to Arouca11 October 2026
- L0-2Academico Viseu20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Rio Ave14 September 2026
- W2-1SC Braga10 September 2026
- D2-2Famalicao5 September 2026
Casa Pia
- L0-1Santa Clara10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Estoril20 September 2026
- L1-4FC Porto12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Vitória SC6 September 2026
- L0-1Moreirense30 August 2026
What these results say
- Estrela conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Estrela failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Casa Pia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Casa Pia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Estrela
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
Casa Pia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 75% today
From our Primeira Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Estrela vs Casa Pia
- 18 July 2026Estrela 1–2 Casa PiaFriendlies Clubs
- 20 March 2026Estrela 4–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 1 November 2025Casa Pia 3–5 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 9 February 2025Casa Pia 1–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 31 August 2024Estrela 0–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 8 March 2024Estrela 3–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Estrela and Casa Pia
Estrela
GoalsAssists
- I. Stoica42
- A. Marcus41
- L. Antonetti41
Casa Pia
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Estrela carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.44 for Casa Pia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Estrela and 0.93 for Casa Pia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estrela rate 0.94 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Casa Pia rate 0.56 and 1.31.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estrela the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Estrela against 0.93 for Casa Pia. Estrela's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.31 for Casa Pia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Estrela at home · Casa Pia away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Estrela 8, Casa Pia 8.
Estrela score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Casa Pia have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Estrela
- at Moreirense31 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 36%
- vs Benfica8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 16%
- at Vitória SC28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 34%
- vs GIL Vicente6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 36%
- at FC Porto13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 9%
Casa Pia
- vs Sporting CP30 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 9%
- at Alverca7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 18%
- vs SC Braga30 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 16%
- at Rio Ave6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 26%
- vs Nacional13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.