Regular Season - 9 · 24 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

ES Setif vs MB Rouisset Ligue 1 prediction

Our model says: ES Setif 1–0 MB Rouisset

The model makes it 45% ES Setif, 28% draw, 27% MB Rouisset — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: ES Setif 1.47, MB Rouisset 1.02.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • ES Setif are 9th on 5 points from 5 games; MB Rouisset are 4th on 9 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
  • ES Setif are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to JS Kabylie.
  • MB Rouisset have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Témouchent.
  • Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 February 2026, ended ES Setif 2–1 MB Rouisset.

More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: ES Setif vs MB Rouisset

50%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

ES Setif win Draw MB Rouisset win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 0–09%
  6. 0–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read ES Setif first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 34%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts ES Setif at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into ES Setif vs MB Rouisset

ES Setif

  • D1-1JS Kabylie14 October 2026
  • D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026
  • W5-1CS Constantine19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to CR Belouizdad11 September 2026
  • L0-1Ben Aknoun3 September 2026

MB Rouisset

  • W2-0away to Témouchent14 October 2026
  • W1-0USM Alger8 October 2026
  • L0-2away to MC Alger18 September 2026
  • W2-0Olympique Akbou12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to JS Kabylie4 September 2026

What these results say

  • ES Setif failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • ES Setif conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for ES Setif had two goals or fewer.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for MB Rouisset had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9ES Setif512264+25
4MB Rouisset530253+29

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: ES Setif vs MB Rouisset

  • 20 February 2026ES Setif 2–1 MB RouissetLigue 1
  • 19 September 2025MB Rouisset 3–0 ES SetifLigue 1

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

ES Setif carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.31 for MB Rouisset. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for ES Setif and 1.02 for MB Rouisset. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

ES Setif rate 0.58 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MB Rouisset rate 0.53 and 1.56.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour MB Rouisset, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives ES Setif the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for ES Setif against 1.02 for MB Rouisset. ES Setif's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.56 for MB Rouisset.

Season stats

ES SetifMB Rouisset
5Matches5
1W 2D 2LRecord3W 0D 2L
6 1.2 per gameGoals scored5 1.0 per game
4 0.8 per gameGoals conceded3 0.6 per game
1 of 5Clean sheets3 of 5
3 of 5Failed to score2 of 5
1 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
9 1.8 per gameYellow cards16 3.2 per game
1Red cards1

ES Setif at home · MB Rouisset away

3Played3
1W 1D 1LRecord1W 0D 2L
6–3Goals for – against2–3
0 of 3Clean sheets1 of 3

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: ES Setif 5, MB Rouisset 5.

ES Setif scored 101013
MB Rouisset conceded 101010

ES Setif score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); MB Rouisset have let in 0 there.

MB Rouisset scored 010211
ES Setif conceded 101002

MB Rouisset score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); ES Setif have let in 0 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

ES Setif

MB Rouisset

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.