ES Metlaoui
vs
ES Zarzis
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: ES Metlaoui 0–1 ES Zarzis
The model makes it 32% ES Metlaoui, 28% draw, 40% ES Zarzis — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: ES Metlaoui 1.26, ES Zarzis 1.48.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,028 settled matches.
Edge to ES Zarzis: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. ES Metlaoui's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and ES Zarzis's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- ES Metlaoui are 14th on 3 points from 6 games; ES Zarzis are 12th on 6 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- ES Metlaoui are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to AS Marsa.
- ES Zarzis have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to ES Hammam-Sousse.
- Last 6 meetings: ES Zarzis 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended ES Zarzis 1–0 ES Metlaoui.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ES Zarzis at 40% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 2,030 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis
ES Metlaoui
- L0-3away to AS Marsa18 October 2026
- L1-2Stade Tunisien11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane13 September 2026
- W1-0ES Hammam-Sousse6 September 2026
- L1-2away to ES Sahel30 August 2026
ES Zarzis
- W2-0ES Hammam-Sousse11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Club Africain20 September 2026
- L1-2US Monastirienne16 September 2026
- L1-2away to CS Sfaxien29 August 2026
- W1-0Olympique Béja23 August 2026
What these results say
- ES Metlaoui failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Metlaoui conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Zarzis scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ES Metlaoui | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
ES Metlaoui
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 59% today
ES Zarzis
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis
- 9 May 2026ES Zarzis 1–0 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
- 9 November 2025ES Metlaoui 0–0 ES ZarzisLigue 1
- 6 April 2025ES Metlaoui 0–2 ES ZarzisCup
- 9 February 2025ES Metlaoui 1–0 ES ZarzisLigue 1
- 29 September 2024ES Zarzis 1–0 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
- 26 May 2022Etoile S. Metlaoui 1–0 ES ZarzisLigue 1
Leading scorers: ES Metlaoui and ES Zarzis
ES Metlaoui
GoalsAssists
- Mohamed Bouzaabya10
ES Zarzis
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
ES Metlaoui carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.33 for ES Zarzis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for ES Metlaoui and 1.48 for ES Zarzis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ES Metlaoui rate 0.45 in attack and 2.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ES Zarzis rate 0.61 and 1.72.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ES Metlaoui a 0% chance of the title and ES Zarzis 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ES Zarzis the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for ES Metlaoui against 1.48 for ES Zarzis. ES Metlaoui's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.72 for ES Zarzis.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ES Metlaoui at home · ES Zarzis away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: ES Metlaoui 6, ES Zarzis 5.
ES Zarzis score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); ES Metlaoui have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
ES Metlaoui
- at CS Hammam-Lif21 Nov · Ligue 1win 24%
- vs US Ben Guerdane28 Nov · Ligue 1win 28%
- at Olympique Béja5 Dec · Ligue 1win 29%
- vs CA Bizertin12 Dec · Ligue 1win 38%
- at CS Sfaxien19 Dec · Ligue 1win 10%
ES Zarzis
- vs US Ben Guerdane21 Nov · Ligue 1win 40%
- at CA Bizertin28 Nov · Ligue 1win 35%
- vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer5 Dec · Ligue 1win 38%
- at ES Tunis12 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.