Orlando Pirates
vs
TS Galaxy
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Orlando Pirates 2–0 TS Galaxy
The model makes it 66% Orlando Pirates, 23% draw, 11% TS Galaxy — fair odds of 1.52, 4.35 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Orlando Pirates 2.44, TS Galaxy 0.45.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Orlando Pirates are 2nd on 19 points from 7 games; TS Galaxy are 12th on 6 points from 7 games — Premier Soccer League.
- Orlando Pirates are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Marumo Gallants.
- TS Galaxy are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Chippa United.
- Last 6 meetings: Orlando Pirates 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended TS Galaxy 0–6 Orlando Pirates.
All South African Premier Soccer League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando Pirates at 66% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 279 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.4%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy
Orlando Pirates
- W2-0away to Marumo Gallants20 September 2026
- W2-0Durban City17 September 2026
- W4-0away to Kruger United1 September 2026
- W2-0Sekhukhune United25 August 2026
- W3-0away to Chippa United16 August 2026
TS Galaxy
- L0-1Chippa United20 September 2026
- L0-1Kruger United13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sekhukhune United5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Marumo Gallants25 August 2026
- D0-0Golden Arrows16 August 2026
What these results say
- Orlando Pirates won every one of these 5 matches.
- Orlando Pirates scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Orlando Pirates kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
- TS Galaxy failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- TS Galaxy failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for TS Galaxy had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 1 | +15 | 19 |
| 12 | TS Galaxy | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy
- 22 March 2026TS Galaxy 0–6 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
- 30 September 2025Orlando Pirates 2–0 TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
- 17 May 2025Orlando Pirates 1–1 TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
- 29 October 2024TS Galaxy 0–2 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
- 18 May 2024TS Galaxy 1–0 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
- 9 December 2023Orlando Pirates 1–0 TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Orlando Pirates and TS Galaxy
Orlando Pirates
- T. Moremi3 goals
- O. Appollis2 goals2 assists
- L. Seema2 goals2 assists
TS Galaxy
- V. Letsoalo4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Orlando Pirates carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.19 for TS Galaxy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.44 goals for Orlando Pirates and 0.45 for TS Galaxy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orlando Pirates rate 1.04 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; TS Galaxy rate 0.52 and 1.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Orlando Pirates a 73% chance of the title and TS Galaxy 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando Pirates the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Orlando Pirates against 0.45 for TS Galaxy. Orlando Pirates's attack/defence rating is 1.04/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.95 for TS Galaxy.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Orlando Pirates at home · TS Galaxy away
League matches only, Premier Soccer League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Soccer League matches this season: Orlando Pirates 7, TS Galaxy 7.
TS Galaxy score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Orlando Pirates have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Orlando Pirates
- vs Kaizer Chiefs31 Oct · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 52%
- at Siwelele4 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 55%
- vs Golden Arrows28 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 55%
- vs Stellenbosch5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 59%
- at Richards Bay16 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 59%
TS Galaxy
- at Polokwane City31 Oct · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 27%
- vs Durban City4 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 33%
- at Stellenbosch27 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 25%
- vs Richards Bay6 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 39%
- at Kaizer Chiefs15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.