Richards Bay
vs
Mamelodi Sundowns
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Richards Bay 1–2 Mamelodi Sundowns
The model makes it 23% Richards Bay, 26% draw, 51% Mamelodi Sundowns — fair odds of 4.35, 3.85 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Richards Bay 1.08, Mamelodi Sundowns 2.21.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Richards Bay are 14th on 3 points from 7 games; Mamelodi Sundowns are top on 20 points from 8 games — Premier Soccer League.
- Richards Bay have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Sekhukhune United.
- Mamelodi Sundowns are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Chippa United.
- Last 6 meetings: Mamelodi Sundowns 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Richards Bay 0–0 Mamelodi Sundowns.
All South African Premier Soccer League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mamelodi Sundowns at 51% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Richards Bay
- L2-3Sekhukhune United19 September 2026
- L1-5away to Milford FC13 September 2026
- L1-2Amazulu4 September 2026
- D2-2Kaizer Chiefs26 August 2026
- D1-1away to Durban City15 August 2026
Mamelodi Sundowns
- D1-1away to Chippa United12 September 2026
- W3-0Siwelele9 September 2026
- W2-1away to Golden Arrows6 September 2026
- W2-0Milford FC2 September 2026
- W5-2Amazulu26 August 2026
What these results say
- Richards Bay did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Richards Bay scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Richards Bay conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mamelodi Sundowns went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Mamelodi Sundowns scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mamelodi Sundowns won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Richards Bay | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 3 |
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns
- 26 April 2026Richards Bay 0–0 Mamelodi SundownsPremier Soccer League
- 27 September 2025Mamelodi Sundowns 4–1 Richards BayPremier Soccer League
- 3 August 2025Mamelodi Sundowns 4–0 Richards Bay8 Cup
- 30 April 2025Mamelodi Sundowns 3–0 Richards BayPremier Soccer League
- 28 December 2024Richards Bay 0–2 Mamelodi SundownsPremier Soccer League
- 2 April 2024Mamelodi Sundowns 1–0 Richards BayPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns
Richards Bay
- N. Xulu5 goals
Mamelodi Sundowns
- B. León3 goals1 assist
- T. Matthews2 goals3 assists
- C. Mailula2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Richards Bay carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.69 for Mamelodi Sundowns. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Richards Bay and 2.21 for Mamelodi Sundowns. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Richards Bay rate 0.60 in attack and 2.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mamelodi Sundowns rate 1.04 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Richards Bay a 0% chance of the title and Mamelodi Sundowns 24.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mamelodi Sundowns the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Richards Bay against 2.21 for Mamelodi Sundowns. Richards Bay's attack/defence rating is 0.6/2.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.5 for Mamelodi Sundowns.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Richards Bay at home · Mamelodi Sundowns away
League matches only, Premier Soccer League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Soccer League matches this season: Richards Bay 7, Mamelodi Sundowns 8.
Richards Bay score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Mamelodi Sundowns have let in 2 there.
Mamelodi Sundowns score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Richards Bay have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Richards Bay
- at Kruger United31 Oct · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 35%
- vs Stellenbosch4 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 33%
- at Marumo Gallants29 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 34%
- at TS Galaxy6 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 31%
- vs Orlando Pirates16 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 16%
Mamelodi Sundowns
- vs Durban City1 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 52%
- at Kruger United28 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 55%
- vs Polokwane City5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 55%
- vs Sekhukhune United15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 53%
- at Stellenbosch18 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.