Derry City
vs
St Patrick's Athletic
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Derry City 0–1 St Patrick's Athletic
The model makes it 32% Derry City, 31% draw, 37% St Patrick's Athletic — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Derry City 1.01, St Patrick's Athletic 1.17.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Patrick's Athletic at 37% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 2151 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic
Derry City
- W1-0Galway United18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Waterford14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Shelbourne11 September 2026
- D3-3Shamrock Rovers30 August 2026
- L3-5away to Bohemians21 August 2026
St Patrick's Athletic
- W1-0away to Sligo Rovers19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Dundalk14 September 2026
- W2-0Shamrock Rovers11 September 2026
- L0-2Waterford28 August 2026
- W2-0away to Drogheda United21 August 2026
What these results say
- Derry City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- St Patrick's Athletic won 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Patrick's Athletic scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Patrick's Athletic kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic
- 2 August 2026St Patrick's Athletic 1–1 Derry CityPremier Division
- 22 May 2026Derry City 0–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 16 March 2026St Patrick's Athletic 0–0 Derry CityPremier Division
- 29 August 2025Derry City 2–2 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 23 June 2025St Patrick's Athletic 0–1 Derry CityPremier Division
- 5 May 2025Derry City 1–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
Leading scorers: Derry City and St Patrick's Athletic
Derry City
- M. Duffy10 goals5 assists
- J. Clarke6 goals3 assists
St Patrick's Athletic
- A. Keena10 goals4 assists
- R. Edmondson10 goals1 assists
- K. Leavy6 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Derry City carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.47 for St Patrick's Athletic. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Derry City and 1.17 for St Patrick's Athletic. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Derry City rate 0.57 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St Patrick's Athletic rate 0.55 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Derry City a 0% chance of the title and St Patrick's Athletic 28.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Patrick's Athletic the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Derry City against 1.17 for St Patrick's Athletic. Derry City's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.22 for St Patrick's Athletic.