Dundalk
vs
Bohemians
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Dundalk 1–2 Bohemians
The model makes it 33% Dundalk, 27% draw, 40% Bohemians — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Dundalk 1.55, Bohemians 1.86.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dundalk vs Bohemians
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bohemians at 40% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 1304 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dundalk vs Bohemians
Dundalk
- L2-3Shelbourne18 September 2026
- L0-4St Patrick's Athletic14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Waterford11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Drogheda United28 August 2026
- L1-2Galway United21 August 2026
Bohemians
- W2-1Drogheda United18 September 2026
- W3-2away to Galway United11 September 2026
- W3-0Sligo Rovers28 August 2026
- W5-3Derry City21 August 2026
- L1-3away to Waterford9 August 2026
What these results say
- Dundalk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dundalk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dundalk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bohemians scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bohemians had three goals or more.
- Bohemians won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dundalk | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundalk vs Bohemians
- 19 June 2026Bohemians 1–2 DundalkPremier Division
- 8 May 2026Dundalk 1–3 BohemiansPremier Division
- 20 March 2026Bohemians 1–1 DundalkPremier Division
- 27 September 2024Dundalk 0–2 BohemiansPremier Division
- 26 July 2024Bohemians 1–1 DundalkPremier Division
- 26 April 2024Dundalk 2–0 BohemiansPremier Division
Leading scorers: Dundalk and Bohemians
Dundalk
- D. Horgan10 goals10 assists
- G. Arubi7 goals3 assists
Bohemians
- C. Whelan12 goals6 assists
- R. Tierney9 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dundalk carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.33 for Bohemians. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Dundalk and 1.86 for Bohemians. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dundalk rate 0.56 in attack and 2.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bohemians rate 0.66 and 1.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dundalk a 0% chance of the title and Bohemians 13.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bohemians the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Dundalk against 1.86 for Bohemians. Dundalk's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.91 for Bohemians.