Port Vale
vs
Northampton
League Two postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 40% Port Vale, 31% draw, 29% Northampton — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Port Vale 1.37, Northampton 1.00.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Port Vale vs Northampton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Port Vale at 40% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Port Vale vs Northampton
Port Vale
- L0-2away to Walsall19 September 2026
- W1-0Exeter City12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swindon Town1 September 2026
- D0-0Crewe29 August 2026
Northampton
- L0-1Rotherham19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Shrewsbury12 September 2026
- W1-0Newport County5 September 2026
- D1-1Crawley Town1 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gillingham29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Port Vale vs Northampton
- 24 February 2026Northampton 0–1 Port ValeLeague One
- 4 October 2025Port Vale 0–0 NorthamptonLeague One
- 1 April 2024Northampton 2–0 Port ValeLeague One
- 16 September 2023Port Vale 1–0 NorthamptonLeague One
- 12 February 2022Port Vale 0–0 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 7 August 2021Northampton 1–0 Port ValeLeague Two
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Port Vale carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.1 for Northampton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Port Vale and 1.00 for Northampton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Port Vale rate 0.46 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Northampton rate 0.46 and 2.05.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Northampton, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Port Vale the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Port Vale against 1 for Northampton. Port Vale's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.05 for Northampton.