Club Queretaro
vs
Monterrey
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 61% Club Queretaro, 19% draw, 20% Monterrey — fair odds of 1.64, 5.26 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Club Queretaro 2.41, Monterrey 1.33.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Club Queretaro
- L1-2Toluca22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Pumas UNAM16 August 2026
- W3-2Tigres UANL1 August 2026
- W2-1away to CF Pachuca27 July 2026
- L0-1Club America19 July 2026
Monterrey
- L0-2away to Leon22 August 2026
- W6-1FC Juarez16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Atlas2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Necaxa26 July 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Club Queretaro | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 3 | Monterrey | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Club Queretaro
- A. Ávila3 goals
Monterrey
- L. Ocampos5 goals1 assists
- D. Rossi2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Club Queretaro carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.49 for Monterrey. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Club Queretaro L-W-W-D-L; Monterrey W-L-W-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.41 goals for Club Queretaro and 1.33 for Monterrey. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club Queretaro rate 0.91 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Monterrey rate 0.68 and 1.40.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Monterrey, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Queretaro the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Club Queretaro against 1.33 for Monterrey. Club Queretaro's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.4 for Monterrey.