Casa Pia
vs
Sporting CP
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP
The model makes it 10% Casa Pia, 17% draw, 73% Sporting CP — fair odds of 10.00, 5.88 and 1.37. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Casa Pia 0.69, Sporting CP 2.66.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Sporting CP are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Casa Pia are 17th on 4 points from 8 games; Sporting CP are 3rd on 18 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Casa Pia have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Santa Clara.
- Sporting CP are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to SC Braga.
- Last 6 meetings: Sporting CP 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 January 2026, ended Sporting CP 3–0 Casa Pia.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 73% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
Casa Pia
- L0-1Santa Clara10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Estoril20 September 2026
- L1-4FC Porto12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Vitória SC6 September 2026
- L0-1Moreirense30 August 2026
Sporting CP
- W3-1away to SC Braga9 October 2026
- D2-2Arouca19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Famalicao13 September 2026
- W2-0Nacional5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rio Ave28 August 2026
What these results say
- Casa Pia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Casa Pia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
- 16 January 2026Sporting CP 3–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 8 August 2025Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 9 March 2025Casa Pia 1–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 5 October 2024Sporting CP 2–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 29 January 2024Sporting CP 8–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 18 August 2023Casa Pia 1–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Casa Pia and Sporting CP
Casa Pia
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez71
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Casa Pia carry a model rating of 6.45 against 7.21 for Sporting CP. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.69 goals for Casa Pia and 2.66 for Sporting CP. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Casa Pia rate 0.57 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting CP rate 1.62 and 0.80.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Casa Pia a 0% chance of the title and Sporting CP 14.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Casa Pia against 2.66 for Sporting CP. Casa Pia's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.62/0.8 for Sporting CP.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Casa Pia at home · Sporting CP away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Casa Pia 8, Sporting CP 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Casa Pia
- at Alverca7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 18%
- vs SC Braga30 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 17%
- at Rio Ave6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 26%
- vs Nacional13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 33%
Sporting CP
- at Shakhtar Donetsk3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 44%
- vs Moreirense7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 76%
- vs Manchester United25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.