Bradford
vs
Barnsley
League One postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 45% Bradford, 30% draw, 25% Barnsley — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Bradford 1.45, Barnsley 0.80.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Bradford vs Barnsley
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bradford at 45% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bradford vs Barnsley
Bradford
- W1-0away to Luton19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Notts County12 September 2026
- W1-0Mansfield Town5 September 2026
- L1-2Cambridge United1 September 2026
- L0-2away to Plymouth29 August 2026
Barnsley
- D1-1Leicester19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Plymouth12 September 2026
- L1-5Stevenage5 September 2026
- W2-1Blackpool2 September 2026
- W3-1away to Leyton Orient29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradford | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 18 | Barnsley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bradford vs Barnsley
- 18 April 2026Barnsley 2–2 BradfordLeague One
- 18 October 2025Bradford 2–2 BarnsleyLeague One
- 21 November 2023Bradford 5–1 BarnsleyEFL Trophy
- 12 January 2019Barnsley 3–0 BradfordLeague One
- 13 November 2018Barnsley 2–1 BradfordEFL Trophy
- 11 August 2018Bradford 0–2 BarnsleyLeague One
The two sides
Bradford carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.15 for Barnsley. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Bradford and 0.80 for Barnsley. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bradford rate 0.46 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Barnsley rate 0.51 and 2.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bradford a 7.3% chance of the title and Barnsley 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bradford the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Bradford against 0.8 for Barnsley. Bradford's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.07 for Barnsley.