Aston Villa
vs
Viking
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Aston Villa 2–1 Viking
The model makes it 48% Aston Villa, 24% draw, 28% Viking — fair odds of 2.08, 4.17 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Aston Villa 2.07, Viking 1.45.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Aston Villa are 11th on 3 points from 1 game; Viking are 26th on 1 point from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Aston Villa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Brentford.
- Viking are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Brann.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aston Villa vs Viking
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aston Villa at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aston Villa vs Viking
Aston Villa
- W3-2away to Club Brugge KV8 September 2026
Viking
- D3-3Bayern München13 October 2026
- L1-3away to VfB Stuttgart9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 26 | Viking | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Viking
Aston Villa
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Viking
GoalsAssists
- Z. Tripić32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aston Villa carry a model rating of 6.98 against 6.96 for Viking. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Aston Villa and 1.45 for Viking. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aston Villa rate 1.23 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Viking rate 1.09 and 0.87.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aston Villa the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Aston Villa against 1.45 for Viking. Aston Villa's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.87 for Viking.
Season stats
Aston Villa at home · Viking away
League matches only, this season — Aston Villa in the Premier League, Viking in the Eliteserien. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Aston Villa 6 in the Premier League, Viking 22 in the Eliteserien.
Viking score most often in the 0–15 minute window (14 goals); Aston Villa have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aston Villa
- vs Manchester City24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- at Bournemouth28 Oct · League Cupwin 35%
- vs Fulham31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at Barcelona3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 12%
Viking
- vs Tromso25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 62%
- at Bodo/Glimt30 Oct · Eliteserienwin 31%
- vs Sabah FA4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 52%
- vs KFUM Oslo8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 69%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.