Al Ahly
vs
Olympic El Qanah
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Al Ahly 1–0 Olympic El Qanah
The model makes it 53% Al Ahly, 27% draw, 20% Olympic El Qanah — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Al Ahly 1.61, Olympic El Qanah 0.77.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al Ahly are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Ahly are 2nd on 16 points from 6 games; Olympic El Qanah are 11th on 7 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Al Ahly are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Zamalek SC.
- Olympic El Qanah have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Al Masry.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Ahly vs Olympic El Qanah
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Ahly at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Ahly vs Olympic El Qanah
Al Ahly
- W2-0away to Zamalek SC11 October 2026
- W2-0Abu Qair Semad15 September 2026
- D1-1away to El Mokawloon9 September 2026
- W1-0Smouha SC3 September 2026
- W2-0away to Masr28 August 2026
Olympic El Qanah
- D1-1Al Masry11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Masr17 September 2026
- D1-1El Geish7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Wadi Degla1 September 2026
- D1-1El Gouna FC28 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Ahly went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al Ahly scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al Ahly had two goals or fewer.
- Olympic El Qanah did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Olympic El Qanah scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olympic El Qanah conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Ahly | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 16 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al Ahly
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 39% today
Olympic El Qanah
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Al Ahly and Olympic El Qanah
Al Ahly
GoalsAssists
- Zizo31
- A. Bencharki20
Olympic El Qanah
GoalsAssists
- M. Wayo30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al Ahly carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.33 for Olympic El Qanah. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Al Ahly and 0.77 for Olympic El Qanah. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Ahly rate 0.88 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olympic El Qanah rate 0.58 and 1.63.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Ahly a 38.7% chance of the title and Olympic El Qanah 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Ahly the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al Ahly against 0.77 for Olympic El Qanah. Al Ahly's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.63 for Olympic El Qanah.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Ahly at home · Olympic El Qanah away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Al Ahly 6, Olympic El Qanah 6.
Al Ahly score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Olympic El Qanah have let in 1 there.
Olympic El Qanah score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Al Ahly have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al Ahly
- at Future FC29 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- vs Pyramids FC23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Ghazl El Mehalla10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 57%
- vs Asyut Petrol15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 58%
- at Ceramica Cleopatra24 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%
Olympic El Qanah
- vs Enppi30 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at El Mokawloon25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- at Future FC9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Al Ittihad Alexandria15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- at National Bank of Egypt22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.