Bayer Leverkusen
vs
VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 VfB Stuttgart
The model makes it 53% Bayer Leverkusen, 23% draw, 24% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.31, VfB Stuttgart 1.40.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Bayer Leverkusen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 10 points from 5 games; VfB Stuttgart are 13th on 6 points from 6 games — Bundesliga.
- Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-3 win away to FSV Mainz 05.
- VfB Stuttgart have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Hamburger SV.
- Last 6 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer Leverkusen.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 53% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
Bayer Leverkusen
- W4-3away to FSV Mainz 0510 October 2026
- W2-0RB Leipzig20 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg12 September 2026
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
VfB Stuttgart
- L0-1away to Hamburger SV17 October 2026
- W2-0away to SC Paderborn 0710 October 2026
- L0-1Borussia Dortmund19 September 2026
- L1-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim12 September 2026
- W4-11. FC Köln4 September 2026
What these results say
- Bayer Leverkusen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bayer Leverkusen had three goals or more.
- VfB Stuttgart conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 10 |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bayer Leverkusen
Chance to finish in the top four · 76% today
VfB Stuttgart
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
- 9 May 2026VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 10 January 2026Bayer Leverkusen 1–4 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 16 March 2025VfB Stuttgart 3–4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 1 November 2024Bayer Leverkusen 0–0 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 17 August 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2–2 VfB StuttgartSuper Cup
- 27 April 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
Leading scorers: Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick51
VfB Stuttgart
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bayer Leverkusen carry a model rating of 7.12 against 6.95 for VfB Stuttgart. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.31 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.40 for VfB Stuttgart. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bayer Leverkusen rate 1.41 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfB Stuttgart rate 1.09 and 0.89.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bayer Leverkusen a 12.1% chance of the title and VfB Stuttgart 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen against 1.40 for VfB Stuttgart. Bayer Leverkusen's attack/defence rating is 1.41/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.89 for VfB Stuttgart.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bayer Leverkusen at home · VfB Stuttgart away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Bayer Leverkusen 5, VfB Stuttgart 5.
VfB Stuttgart score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Bayer Leverkusen have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bayer Leverkusen
- vs Marseille5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 56%
- at 1. FC Köln8 Nov · Bundesligawin 59%
VfB Stuttgart
- at Galatasaray3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 28%
- vs Werder Bremen7 Nov · Bundesligawin 53%
- at FC Schalke 0421 Nov · Bundesligawin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.