Barnet
vs
York
League Two prediction
Our model says: Barnet 2–1 York
The model makes it 44% Barnet, 25% draw, 31% York — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Barnet 2.19, York 1.63.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Barnet vs York
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barnet at 44% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Barnet vs York
Barnet
- W3-1Fleetwood Town19 September 2026
- W2-1Accrington Stanley12 September 2026
- D3-3away to Chesterfield5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Exeter City1 September 2026
- D2-2Cheltenham29 August 2026
York
- L0-2away to Chesterfield19 September 2026
- W4-0Swindon Town12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Crewe5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Cheltenham1 September 2026
- W2-1Exeter City29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 15 |
| 7 | York | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Barnet vs York
- 18 February 2025Barnet 3–1 YorkNational League
- 22 October 2024York 3–1 BarnetNational League
- 24 February 2024Barnet 2–0 YorkNational League
- 26 September 2023York 2–4 BarnetNational League
- 3 April 2023York 1–0 BarnetNational League
- 1 October 2022Barnet 0–5 YorkNational League
Leading scorers: Barnet and York
Barnet
- C. Lakin6 goals2 assists
- K. Tshimanga4 goals4 assists
York
- A. Newby6 goals1 assists
- H. Boyes2 goals4 assists
- O. Pearce2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Barnet carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.25 for York. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.19 goals for Barnet and 1.63 for York. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Barnet rate 0.70 in attack and 2.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; York rate 0.63 and 2.15.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Barnet a 31.9% chance of the title and York 5.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barnet the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Barnet against 1.63 for York. Barnet's attack/defence rating is 0.7/2.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/2.15 for York.