UTC Cajamarca
vs
FBC Melgar
Primera División prediction
Our model says: UTC Cajamarca 1–2 FBC Melgar
The model makes it 24% UTC Cajamarca, 26% draw, 50% FBC Melgar — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: UTC Cajamarca 1.08, FBC Melgar 1.80.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FBC Melgar are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- UTC Cajamarca are bottom on 15 points from 28 games; FBC Melgar are 4th on 47 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- UTC Cajamarca have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sporting Cristal.
- FBC Melgar are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Universitario.
- Last 6 meetings: FBC Melgar 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended FBC Melgar 2–0 UTC Cajamarca.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FBC Melgar at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
- L0-1Sporting Cristal11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sport Huancayo20 September 2026
- L1-2Juan Pablo II College11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Alianza Atletico4 September 2026
- L2-4Universitario29 August 2026
FBC Melgar
- D2-2away to Universitario11 October 2026
- D1-1Sport Boys20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cusco12 September 2026
- W3-0ADT6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Grau1 September 2026
What these results say
- UTC Cajamarca did not win any of these 5 matches.
- UTC Cajamarca conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- UTC Cajamarca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FBC Melgar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 32 | 51 | -19 | 15 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 31 | +16 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FBC Melgar
Chance to finish in the top four · 69% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar
- 3 May 2026FBC Melgar 2–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 19 July 2025UTC Cajamarca 1–2 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 8 February 2025FBC Melgar 3–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 22 October 2024FBC Melgar 1–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 12 May 2024UTC Cajamarca 2–6 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 15 August 2023FBC Melgar 1–1 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
Leading scorers: UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
FBC Melgar
GoalsAssists
- B. Cuesta136
- J. Vidales121
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
UTC Cajamarca carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.51 for FBC Melgar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.80 for FBC Melgar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
UTC Cajamarca rate 0.49 in attack and 2.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FBC Melgar rate 0.69 and 1.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives UTC Cajamarca a 0% chance of the title and FBC Melgar 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FBC Melgar the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca against 1.80 for FBC Melgar. UTC Cajamarca's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.36 for FBC Melgar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
UTC Cajamarca at home · FBC Melgar away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: UTC Cajamarca 28, FBC Melgar 28.
UTC Cajamarca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); FBC Melgar have let in 10 there.
FBC Melgar score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); UTC Cajamarca have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
UTC Cajamarca
- at FC Cajamarca28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 22%
- vs Deportivo Garcilaso31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 23%
- at Sport Boys7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 18%
- vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 40%
FBC Melgar
- vs Comerciantes Unidos28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 56%
- at Sport Huancayo31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
- vs Juan Pablo II College7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 57%
- at Alianza Atletico14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.