Atletico Nacional
vs
Deportivo Pasto
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportivo Pasto
The model makes it 59% Atletico Nacional, 24% draw, 17% Deportivo Pasto — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Atletico Nacional 2.36, Deportivo Pasto 0.74.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Nacional at 59% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto
Atletico Nacional
- D1-1Millonarios25 September 2026
- L0-2away to Llaneros21 September 2026
- W3-2away to Internacional de Bogota17 September 2026
- W2-0Águilas Doradas13 September 2026
- W5-1away to Alianza Valledupar30 August 2026
Deportivo Pasto
- L0-3away to Chico25 September 2026
- W1-0Once Caldas20 September 2026
- W1-0away to America de Cali15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cucuta5 September 2026
- L1-2Deportivo Pereira31 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Nacional scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Nacional conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Pasto scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atletico Nacional | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 19 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto
Atletico Nacional
- A. Morelos14 goals6 assists
Deportivo Pasto
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Nacional carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.34 for Deportivo Pasto. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.36 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.74 for Deportivo Pasto. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Nacional rate 0.97 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Pasto rate 0.61 and 1.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico Nacional a 41.2% chance of the title and Deportivo Pasto 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Nacional the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Atletico Nacional against 0.74 for Deportivo Pasto. Atletico Nacional's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.68 for Deportivo Pasto.