Arouca
vs
Nacional
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Arouca 2–1 Nacional
The model makes it 54% Arouca, 25% draw, 21% Nacional — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Arouca 1.96, Nacional 1.02.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Arouca: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Arouca are 5th on 14 points from 8 games; Nacional are 16th on 4 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Arouca have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Estrela.
- Nacional have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Rio Ave.
- Last 6 meetings: Arouca 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Arouca 3–0 Nacional.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arouca vs Nacional
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arouca at 54% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Arouca vs Nacional
Arouca
- W1-0Estrela11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Sporting CP19 September 2026
- L1-2Santa Clara13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estoril7 September 2026
- W2-1Maritimo29 August 2026
Nacional
- L2-3away to Rio Ave11 October 2026
- L0-4Famalicao19 September 2026
- L1-3Alverca12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sporting CP5 September 2026
- L2-3Estrela30 August 2026
What these results say
- Arouca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nacional did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Nacional conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nacional had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arouca vs Nacional
- 21 February 2026Arouca 3–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 20 September 2025Nacional 1–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 1 February 2025Nacional 1–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 25 August 2024Arouca 1–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 6 May 2018Arouca 0–1 NacionalSegunda Liga
- 22 December 2017Nacional 2–2 AroucaSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Arouca and Nacional
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Nacional
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Arouca carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.58 for Nacional. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.96 goals for Arouca and 1.02 for Nacional. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arouca rate 0.97 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nacional rate 0.78 and 1.34.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arouca a 0.1% chance of the title and Nacional 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arouca the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Arouca against 1.02 for Nacional. Arouca's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.34 for Nacional.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arouca at home · Nacional away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Arouca 8, Nacional 8.
Nacional score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Arouca have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Arouca
- at Famalicao6 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 32%
- vs Rio Ave28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 56%
- at SC Braga6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 24%
- at Academico Viseu13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 31%
Nacional
- vs Academico Viseu7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 29%
- at Maritimo27 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 28%
- vs Benfica6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 12%
- at Casa Pia13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.