Abha vs Al-Ettifaq Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Abha 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Abha, 28% draw, 33% Al-Ettifaq — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Abha at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Abha vs Al-Ettifaq
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16D. LeonG
- 39M. Al-ZaidD
- 3J. GaariD
- 37A. HindiD
- 80S. Al JohaniD
- 7F. Al GhamdiM
- 19A. Al FahadM
- 11A. GoryM
- 10N. FekirM
- 20K. Al Qahtani
- 44M. BatshuayiF
- 26M. MalayekahG
- 66N. Al Gulaymish
- 24H. Al ZahraniD
- 28B. Al MutairiM
- 4B. Al SayyaliM
- 12K. Al ShamraniD
- 6F. Al SubianiM
- 29M. Y. Dawran M.M
- 9K. BoumedmedF
- 92T. Ba Al JawshG
- 61R. Al OtaibiD
- 4J. HendryD
- 70A. A. KhateebD
- 13M. Al AlaeliD
- 42A. KanteM
- 11O. DudaM
- 17J. LarssonM
- 10A. MedranM
- 43B. CelinaM
- 9M. DembeleF
- 23A. Al RehailiG
- 3A. MaduD
- 33M. Al OlayanD
- 87M. Al SibyaniD
- 6F. Al GhamdiM
- 58Y. Al ShammariM
- 7K. Al GhannamF
- 80R. MessiM
- 29Z. Al Ghamdi
Form going into Abha vs Al-Ettifaq
Abha
No earlier matches on record this season.
Al-Ettifaq
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Al Diriyah29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Abha | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 2 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Al-Ettifaq won 1–0 at Abha. The model had leaned towards a win for Abha at 39% and given a win for Al-Ettifaq 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: D. Leon (own goal) 80' for Al-Ettifaq. On expected goals it finished 0.51–1.09.
How the call on Abha v Al-Ettifaq has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 27% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 39% / 28% / 33%: the biggest move is Al-Ettifaq's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Abha win39%▲ +1
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Al-Ettifaq win33%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.