NEOM
vs
Abha
Pro League prediction
Our model says: NEOM 1–0 Abha
The model makes it 55% NEOM, 25% draw, 20% Abha — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: NEOM 1.90, Abha 0.94.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to NEOM: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- NEOM are 5th on 16 points from 8 games; Abha are bottom on 2 points from 7 games — Pro League.
- NEOM are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Al-Hazm.
- Abha have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Al Diriyah.
- Last 2 meetings: NEOM 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 January 2025, ended NEOM 2–2 Abha.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NEOM vs Abha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NEOM at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NEOM vs Abha
NEOM
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm10 October 2026
- W4-2Al-Fateh13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al-Hilal7 September 2026
- W3-0Al Khaleej Saihat3 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Riyadh28 August 2026
Abha
- D0-0away to Al Diriyah13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Nassr9 September 2026
- L0-1Al-Ettifaq4 September 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Fayha28 August 2026
- D1-1Al Khaleej Saihat25 August 2026
What these results say
- NEOM scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Abha did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Abha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NEOM | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 16 |
| 18 | Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
NEOM
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
Abha
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: NEOM vs Abha
- 21 January 2025NEOM 2–2 AbhaDivision 1
- 21 August 2024Abha 0–2 NEOMDivision 1
Leading scorers: NEOM and Abha
NEOM
GoalsAssists
- A. Lacazette51
- A. Koné41
Abha
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
NEOM carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.36 for Abha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for NEOM and 0.94 for Abha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NEOM rate 0.77 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Abha rate 0.56 and 1.51.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NEOM a 0.3% chance of the title and Abha 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEOM the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for NEOM against 0.94 for Abha. NEOM's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.51 for Abha.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NEOM at home · Abha away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: NEOM 8, Abha 7.
NEOM score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Abha have let in 2 there.
Abha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); NEOM have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
NEOM
- at Al Diriyah30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at Al-Ittihad5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Al Kholood20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 53%
Abha
- vs Al-Ittihad30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 23%
- vs Al Shabab5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.