Al-Faisaly FC
vs
Al Kholood
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Faisaly FC 1–2 Al Kholood
The model makes it 34% Al-Faisaly FC, 29% draw, 37% Al Kholood — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al-Faisaly FC 1.36, Al Kholood 1.48.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Faisaly FC are 16th on 3 points from 7 games; Al Kholood are 7th on 12 points from 7 games — Pro League.
- Al-Faisaly FC have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Al-Ittihad.
- Al Kholood have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Al Riyadh.
- Last 4 meetings: Al Kholood 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 March 2024, ended Al-Faisaly FC 0–3 Al Kholood.
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Kholood at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood
Al-Faisaly FC
- L1-3Al-Ittihad11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Ettifaq8 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Hazm5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC30 August 2026
- D1-1Al-Fateh26 August 2026
Al Kholood
- L0-2away to Al Riyadh13 September 2026
- W2-1Al Shabab9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Fayha3 September 2026
- W3-1Al-Ahli Jeddah29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Al Diriyah26 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Faisaly FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Kholood conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Kholood scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Al Kholood.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Al-Faisaly FC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3 |
| 7 | Al Kholood | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood
- 29 March 2024Al-Faisaly FC 0–3 Al KholoodDivision 1
- 8 November 2023Al Kholood 1–0 Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1
- 12 March 2023Al-Faisaly FC 1–1 Al KholoodDivision 1
- 18 October 2022Al Kholood 0–1 Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1
Leading scorers: Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood
Al-Faisaly FC
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Al Kholood
- Iker Kortajarena4 goals1 assist
- J. Domingues3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Faisaly FC carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.48 for Al Kholood. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.48 for Al Kholood. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Faisaly FC rate 0.56 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Kholood rate 0.70 and 1.48.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Kholood the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC against 1.48 for Al Kholood. Al-Faisaly FC's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.48 for Al Kholood.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Faisaly FC at home · Al Kholood away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Faisaly FC 7, Al Kholood 7.
Al-Faisaly FC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Al Kholood have let in 2 there.
Al Kholood score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Al-Faisaly FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Faisaly FC
- at Al Shabab19 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 31%
- vs Al-Nassr23 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 19%
- at Al-Fayha31 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 30%
- vs Al Diriyah5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 28%
Al Kholood
- at Abha19 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- vs Al-Ettifaq24 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 35%
- at Al-Nassr29 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 18%
- vs Al Khaleej Saihat5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.