Al-Gharafa
vs
Qatar SC
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al-Gharafa 2–1 Qatar SC
The model makes it 38% Al-Gharafa, 26% draw, 36% Qatar SC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Gharafa 1.58, Qatar SC 1.51.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,048 settled matches.
A tight game: Al-Gharafa and Qatar SC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 27 October 2026. Al-Gharafa's rating is built from 29 Qatar Stars League matches and Qatar SC's from 29, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 307 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Gharafa are 10th on 6 points from 7 games; Qatar SC are 11th on 6 points from 7 games — Stars League.
- Al-Gharafa have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Al Ahli Doha.
- Qatar SC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Al Shamal.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Gharafa 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 March 2026, ended Qatar SC 2–0 Al-Gharafa.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Gharafa at 38% here. Across 4,980 settled matches (as of 27 October 2026), 3,818 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC
Al-Gharafa
Stars League
- D2-2Al Ahli Doha22 October 2026
- D0-0Al-Rayyan SC18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al Wakrah8 October 2026
- D0-0Lusail City11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Al Sadd5 September 2026
Qatar SC
Stars League
- W3-2away to Al Shamal23 October 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Sailiya17 October 2026
- L0-3Al-Rayyan SC9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Arabi SC12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ahli Doha3 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Gharafa did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Qatar SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qatar SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Gharafa
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 20% today
Qatar SC
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 28% today
From our Stars League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC
- 12 March 2026Qatar SC 2–0 Al-GharafaStars League
- 19 January 2026Qatar SC 3–2 Al-GharafaQSL Cup
- 7 November 2025Al-Gharafa 2–1 Qatar SCStars League
- 22 February 2025Al-Gharafa 4–2 Qatar SCStars League
- 22 September 2024Qatar SC 1–3 Al-GharafaStars League
- 19 May 2024Qatar SC 2–2 Al-GharafaEmir Cup
Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Qatar SC
Al-Gharafa
GoalsAssists
- Y. Brahimi30
Qatar SC
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Gharafa carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.27 for Qatar SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Al-Gharafa and 1.51 for Qatar SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Gharafa rate 0.52 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qatar SC rate 0.53 and 1.71.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,402 correct results out of 4,996 settled predictions (48%), with 499 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on Al-Gharafa v Qatar SC has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 35% / 26% / 39% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 38% / 26% / 36%: the biggest move is Al-Gharafa's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Al-Gharafa win38%▲ +3
- Draw26%=
- Qatar SC win36%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Gharafa the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al-Gharafa against 1.51 for Qatar SC. Al-Gharafa's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.71 for Qatar SC.
How the model reaches 38% for Al-Gharafa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Al-Gharafa to win. Then home advantage changes nothing, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Al-Gharafa's ratings change nothing and Qatar SC's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage38%±0
- Both sides at this match's level37%−1
- Al-Gharafa's ratings37%±0
- Qatar SC's ratings38%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Gharafa at home · Qatar SC away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al-Gharafa 7, Qatar SC 7.
Al-Gharafa score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Qatar SC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Gharafa
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 16%
- vs Al-Duhail SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 21%
- at Al Quwa Al Jawiya23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 39%
- vs Al-Arabi SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 26%
- at Al-Sailiya3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 50%
Qatar SC
- at Lusail City20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 32%
- at Al-Duhail SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 20%
- vs Al Shahaniya3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.