11 September 2026, 15:45 UTC

Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad Pro League prediction & result

Al Majma’a Sport City, Madimaa
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Al-Faisaly FC 1-3 Al-Ittihad.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Al-Faisaly FC, 30% draw, 34% Al-Ittihad — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al-Faisaly FC at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Faisaly FC0%Draw1%Al-Ittihad99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
⚽S. Bergwijnassist: R. Rios
43'
⚽Y. En Nesyriassist: G. Ilenikhena
🔁E. Al Muwalladout: T. Bongonda
46'
48'
Hassan Kadesh
59'
⚽Y. En Nesyriassist: G. Ilenikhena
63'
🔁G. Ilenikhenaout: G. Wijnaldum
63'
🔁R. Riosout: M. Ali
🔁M. Al Shanqitiout: H. Al Zarie
67'
🔁C. Bassogogout: A. Al Bishi
67'
72'
🔁F. Abdiout: M. Fagihy
72'
🔁Y. En Nesyriout: S. Al Shehri
🔁J. Seoaneout: S. Haddad
80'
🔁A. Al Shereafout: A. Fallatah
80'
80'
🔁S. Bergwijnout: M. Al Sahafi
⚽T. Bongondaassist: S. Haddad
87'

Match stats — Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad

46%Possession54%
10Shots12
2On target4
4Corners3
1.11xG1.29

Goals against chances

Al-Faisaly FC1 from 1.11 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al-Ittihad3 from 1.29 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Faisaly FC 4-1-4-1
  • 1F. PachecoG
  • 2Y. BarnawiD
  • 4A. SeckD
  • 5Andrei GirottoD
  • 50M. Al ShanqitiD
  • 6E. Al MuwalladM
  • 13C. BassogogM
  • 8FlavioM
  • 77A. Al ShereafM
  • 20J. SeoaneM
  • 19A. MendyF
Substitutes
  • 26M. Al HasawiG
  • 70M. JahfaliD
  • 87A. SubaytM
  • 3K. Al HarbiD
  • 82H. Al ZarieD
  • 88S. HaddadD
  • 95A. FallatahM
  • 24A. Al BishiM
  • 10T. BongondaF
Coach: Giovanni Solinas
Al-Ittihad 4-4-2
  • 1P. RajkovicG
  • 13M. Al ShanqitiD
  • 2D. PereiraD
  • 15H. KadeshD
  • 25F. AbdiD
  • 27A. Al GhamdiM
  • 30D. LopyM
  • 5R. RiosM
  • 34S. BergwijnM
  • 9G. IlenikhenaF
  • 21Y. En NesyriF
Substitutes
  • 50M. Al AbsiG
  • 42M. FagihyD
  • 66M. BarnawiD
  • 23G. WijnaldumM
  • 8M. AliM
  • 60R. KaabiM
  • 41M. FallatahM
  • 11S. Al ShehriF
  • 22M. Al SahafiF
Coach: Jens Wissing

Form going into Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad

Al-Faisaly FC

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Al-Ettifaq8 September 2026
  • D0-0Al-Hazm5 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC30 August 2026

Al-Ittihad

Pro League

  • W2-1Al-Fayha8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Al-Faisaly FC112451220-810
4Al-Ittihad107212010+1023

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad

Al-Faisaly FC

GoalsAssists

  • Alexandre Mendy51

Al-Ittihad

GoalsAssists

  • Y. En-Nesyri70
  • G. Ilenikhena63
  • S. Bergwijn51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Ittihad won 3–1 at Al-Faisaly FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Faisaly FC at 36% and given a win for Al-Ittihad 34%. The goals: S. Bergwijn 28' for Al-Ittihad, Y. En Nesyri 43' for Al-Ittihad, Y. En Nesyri 59' for Al-Ittihad, T. Bongonda 87' for Al-Faisaly FC. On expected goals it finished 1.11–1.29.

How the call on Al-Faisaly FC v Al-Ittihad has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 27% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 36% / 30% / 34%: the biggest move is the draw, up 3 points.

  1. Al-Faisaly FC win36%▼ −1
  2. Draw30%▲ +3
  3. Al-Ittihad win34%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.