KuPS
vs
VPS
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: KuPS 1–0 VPS
The model makes it 49% KuPS, 27% draw, 24% VPS — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: KuPS 1.90, VPS 1.00.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- KuPS are top on 48 points from 25 games; VPS are 5th on 36 points from 25 games — Veikkausliiga, Championship Group.
- KuPS are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win away to VPS.
- VPS have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to KuPS.
- Last 6 meetings: KuPS 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended VPS 0–2 KuPS.
All Veikkausliiga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: KuPS vs VPS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts KuPS at 49% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into KuPS vs VPS
KuPS
- W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
- D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku31 August 2026
- L2-4Mariehamn23 August 2026
VPS
- L0-2KuPS19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
- W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
- L0-1Lahti31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Ilves22 August 2026
What these results say
- KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.
- Every one of these 5 matches for VPS had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 25 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 48 |
| 5 | VPS | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: KuPS vs VPS
- 19 September 2026VPS 0–2 KuPSVeikkausliiga
- 25 July 2026KuPS 3–1 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 13 June 2026VPS 1–1 KuPSVeikkausliiga
- 10 June 2026KuPS 0–0 VPSSuomen Cup
- 31 January 2026KuPS 3–1 VPSLeague Cup
- 19 July 2025VPS 1–1 KuPSVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: KuPS and VPS
KuPS
- J. Moreno5 goals
- J. Luyeye-Lutumba3 goals1 assist
- B. Armah3 goals
VPS
- L. Smyth5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
KuPS carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.2 for VPS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for KuPS and 1.00 for VPS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KuPS rate 0.65 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VPS rate 0.47 and 1.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives KuPS a 49.7% chance of the title and VPS 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KuPS the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for KuPS against 1.00 for VPS. KuPS's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.75 for VPS.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
KuPS at home · VPS away
League matches only, Veikkausliiga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Veikkausliiga matches this season: KuPS 25, VPS 25.
KuPS score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); VPS have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
KuPS
- at Borac Banja Luka22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 24%
- at HJK Helsinki25 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 38%
VPS
- vs Inter Turku24 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 28%
- at AC Oulu28 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 37%
- vs HJK Helsinki2 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.