Abha
vs
Al-Faisaly FC
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Abha 1–0 Al-Faisaly FC
The model makes it 36% Abha, 30% draw, 34% Al-Faisaly FC — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Abha 1.30, Al-Faisaly FC 1.24.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Abha and Al-Faisaly FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Abha at 36% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC
Abha
- D0-0away to Al Diriyah13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Nassr9 September 2026
- L0-1Al-Ettifaq4 September 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Fayha28 August 2026
- D1-1Al Khaleej Saihat25 August 2026
Al-Faisaly FC
- L1-3Al-Ittihad11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Ettifaq8 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Hazm5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC30 August 2026
- D1-1Al-Fateh26 August 2026
What these results say
- Abha did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Abha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Faisaly FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
| 16 | Al-Faisaly FC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Abha carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.38 for Al-Faisaly FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Abha and 1.24 for Al-Faisaly FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Abha rate 0.55 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Faisaly FC rate 0.56 and 1.44.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al-Faisaly FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Abha the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.3 expected goals for Abha against 1.24 for Al-Faisaly FC. Abha's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.44 for Al-Faisaly FC.