Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Aarhus 0-2 FC Midtjylland.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Aarhus, 28% draw, 30% FC Midtjylland — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aarhus at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland
Line-ups
- 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
- 25C. RöslerD
- 44Mouhammade CamaraD
- 19E. KahlD
- 26J. AndersenM
- 4M. KnudsenM
- 10K. ArnstadM
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 31T. BechF
- 27S. TchamcheF
- 23M. AndersonF
- 29R. CarstensenD
- 28J. BogereF
- 33Luka CalløD
- 1J. HansenG
- 16J. JønssonM
- 14T. MølgaardD
- 13J. SerraF
- 7M. SolbakkenM
- 8S. JørgensenM
- 1E. ÓlafssonG
- 5R. KristensenD
- 6M. ErlićD
- 3M. JensenD
- 15B. Dje Bi DjeD
- 10Cho Gue-SungM
- 21D. CastilloM
- 8P. BillingM
- 19P. BravoM
- 29K. WätjenM
- 90F. EtimF
- 33Alamara DjabiM
- 17M. UhreF
- 34N. A. AzizD
- 18S. IheanachoF
- 7Franculino DjúF
- 14E. ChilufyaF
- 25N. BakkerG
- 55V. Bak JensenD
- 27S. JohannesenM
Form going into Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland
Aarhus
- L1-2away to Randers FC30 August 2026
FC Midtjylland
- D1-1away to Silkeborg30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aarhus | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland
- 26 April 2026Aarhus 0–0 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 20 April 2026FC Midtjylland 2–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 8 March 2026FC Midtjylland 1–1 AarhusDBU Pokalen
- 12 February 2026Aarhus 0–1 FC MidtjyllandDBU Pokalen
- 3 November 2025FC Midtjylland 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 3 August 2025Aarhus 0–0 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
Leading scorers: Aarhus and FC Midtjylland
Aarhus
- C. McCowatt3 goals2 assists
- J. Serra3 goals
FC Midtjylland
- F. Etim4 goals2 assists
- S. Iheanacho3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.