Strasbourg
vs
Stade Brestois 29
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Strasbourg 2–1 Stade Brestois 29
The model makes it 43% Strasbourg, 24% draw, 33% Stade Brestois 29 — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Strasbourg 2.00, Stade Brestois 29 1.72.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Strasbourg's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Stade Brestois 29's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Strasbourg are 13th on 10 points from 10 games; Stade Brestois 29 are 9th on 15 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Strasbourg have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Toulouse.
- Stade Brestois 29 have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Lyon.
- Last 6 meetings: Stade Brestois 29 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 May 2026, ended Stade Brestois 29 1–2 Strasbourg.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29
Has the model earned this number?
Strasbourg at 43%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29
Strasbourg
Ligue 1
- L1-3away to Toulouse6 November 2026
- W5-1Auxerre1 November 2026
- L0-3away to Rennes25 October 2026
- L1-3Paris Saint Germain17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Nice11 October 2026
Stade Brestois 29
Ligue 1
- W2-0Lyon8 November 2026
- W2-0away to Lorient2 November 2026
- L1-2Nice23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lille17 October 2026
- W5-1Angers10 October 2026
What these results say
- Strasbourg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Strasbourg had three goals or more.
- Strasbourg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stade Brestois 29 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg have met 6 times in the records we hold, Stade Brestois 29 has won 3 of them to Strasbourg's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Strasbourg won the last one 2–1 on 13 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 |
| Strasbourg | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 13 May 2026
Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 1–2 Strasbourg - 30 Nov 2025
Ligue 1Strasbourg 1–2 Stade Brestois 29 - 23 Feb 2025
Ligue 1Strasbourg 0–0 Stade Brestois 29 - 30 Nov 2024
Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 3–1 Strasbourg - 24 Feb 2024
Ligue 1Strasbourg 0–3 Stade Brestois 29 - 7 Dec 2023
Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 1–1 Strasbourg
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Strasbourg's attack rates 13% above Stade Brestois 29's, and Stade Brestois 29 concede 16% fewer than Strasbourg. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | 1.00 | 1.05 |
| Strasbourg | 1.13 | 1.25 |
Leading scorers: Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29
Strasbourg
GoalsAssists
- Gessime Yassine43
Stade Brestois 29
GoalsAssists
- L. Ajorque51
- K. Doumbia42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stade Brestois 29 (9th, with Strasbourg 13th), while our numbers lean to Strasbourg. Strasbourg rate 1.13 in attack and 1.25 in defence, Stade Brestois 29 1.00 and 1.05 (lower is better in defence), so Strasbourg have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Strasbourg a 0% chance of the title and Stade Brestois 29 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Strasbourg v Stade Brestois 29 has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 45% / 24% / 31% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 43% / 24% / 33%: the biggest move is Strasbourg's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Strasbourg win43%▼ −2
- Draw24%=
- Stade Brestois 29 win33%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Strasbourg the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Strasbourg against 1.72 for Stade Brestois 29. Strasbourg's attack/defence rating is 1.13/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.05 for Stade Brestois 29.
How the model reaches 43% for Strasbourg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Strasbourg to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Strasbourg's ratings change nothing and Stade Brestois 29's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- Strasbourg's ratings44%±0
- Stade Brestois 29's ratings43%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Strasbourg at home · Stade Brestois 29 away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
StrasbourgStade Brestois 29
Strasbourg are 13th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 4th and 18th so far); Stade Brestois 29 are 9th after 10 (between 4th and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Strasbourg 10, Stade Brestois 29 10.
Stade Brestois 29 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Strasbourg have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Strasbourg
- at Le Havre28 Nov · Ligue 1win 46%
- vs Lorient5 Dec · Ligue 1win 42%
- at Angers12 Dec · Ligue 1win 49%
- at Lille3 Jan · Ligue 1win 19%
- vs Le Mans16 Jan · Ligue 1win 56%
Stade Brestois 29
- vs Paris FC27 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
- at Rennes6 Dec · Ligue 1win 32%
- vs Estac Troyes12 Dec · Ligue 1win 56%
- vs Marseille2 Jan · Ligue 1win 34%
- at Monaco17 Jan · Ligue 1win 26%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.