Rennes
vs
Lille
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Rennes 1–2 Lille
The model makes it 33% Rennes, 27% draw, 40% Lille — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rennes 1.37, Lille 1.58.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,224 settled matches.
Edge to Lille: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Rennes's rating is built from 41 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Lille's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 680 matches.
Key facts
- Rennes are 7th on 13 points from 7 games; Lille are 3rd on 14 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Rennes have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to Paris FC.
- Lille have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Stade Brestois 29.
- Last 6 meetings: Lille 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Rennes 1–2 Lille.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rennes vs Lille
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lille at 40% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rennes vs Lille
Rennes
Ligue 1
- L3-4away to Paris FC18 October 2026
- W4-1Auxerre11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Lyon19 September 2026
- W1-0Marseille11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Angers6 September 2026
Lille
Ligue 1
- D1-1Stade Brestois 2917 October 2026
- W1-0Le Havre10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Nice20 September 2026
- W2-0Estac Troyes13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Toulouse3 September 2026
What these results say
- Rennes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rennes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rennes had three goals or more.
- Lille scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lille had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 3 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lille vs Rennes
Lille and Rennes have met 6 times in the records we hold, Lille has won 3 of them to Rennes's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Lille won the last one 2–1 on 15 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 |
| Rennes | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 15 Mar 2026
Ligue 1Rennes 1–2 Lille - 3 Jan 2026
Ligue 1Lille 0–2 Rennes - 16 Feb 2025
Ligue 1Rennes 0–2 Lille - 24 Nov 2024
Ligue 1Lille 1–0 Rennes - 10 Mar 2024
Ligue 1Lille 2–2 Rennes - 16 Sep 2023
Ligue 1Rennes 2–2 Lille
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Rennes and Lille
Rennes
GoalsAssists
- E. Lepaul70
- A. Thomasson22
Lille
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rennes carry a model rating of 6.87 against 7.05 for Lille. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Rennes and 1.58 for Lille. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rennes rate 1.20 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lille rate 0.97 and 0.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rennes a 1.6% chance of the title and Lille 7.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lille the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Rennes against 1.58 for Lille. Rennes's attack/defence rating is 1.2/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/0.68 for Lille.
How the model reaches 40% for Lille to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lille to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Rennes's ratings change nothing and Lille's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Rennes's ratings32%±0
- Lille's ratings40%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rennes at home · Lille away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
RennesLille
Rennes are 7th after 7 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Lille are 3rd after 7 (between 1st and 4th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Rennes 7, Lille 7.
Rennes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Lille have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Rennes
- at Lorient22 Nov · Ligue 1win 34%
- at NEC Nijmegen26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 37%
Lille
- vs Lyon21 Nov · Ligue 1win 43%
- vs Bayern München25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.