Le Havre
vs
Lorient
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Le Havre 0–1 Lorient
The model makes it 30% Le Havre, 31% draw, 39% Lorient — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Le Havre 0.94, Lorient 1.17.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,013 settled matches.
Edge to Lorient: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Le Havre's rating is built from 41 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Lorient's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 680 matches.
Key facts
- Le Havre are bottom on 2 points from 7 games; Lorient are 8th on 11 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Le Havre have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Auxerre.
- Lorient have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Monaco.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Lorient 0–2 Le Havre.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Le Havre vs Lorient
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lorient at 39% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Le Havre vs Lorient
Le Havre
Ligue 1
- L1-3Auxerre18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Lille10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Toulouse19 September 2026
- D0-0Angers12 September 2026
- L1-2Stade Brestois 295 September 2026
Lorient
Ligue 1
- W1-0Monaco18 October 2026
- W1-0Paris FC10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Le Mans19 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Lens5 September 2026
What these results say
- Le Havre did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Le Havre conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lorient scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2 |
| 8 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Havre vs Lorient
Le Havre and Lorient have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
Le Havre won the last one 2–0 on 17 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Lorient | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 17 May 2026
Ligue 1Lorient 0–2 Le Havre - 21 Sep 2025
Ligue 1Le Havre 1–1 Lorient - 28 Jan 2024
Ligue 1Lorient 3–3 Le Havre - 3 Sep 2023
Ligue 1Le Havre 3–0 Lorient - 29 Jul 2023
Friendlies ClubsLe Havre 0–2 Lorient - 29 Jul 2023
Friendlies ClubsLorient 2–0 Le Havre
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
The two sides
Le Havre carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.83 for Lorient. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.94 goals for Le Havre and 1.17 for Lorient. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Le Havre rate 0.64 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lorient rate 0.82 and 0.87.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Le Havre a 0% chance of the title and Lorient 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lorient the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Le Havre against 1.17 for Lorient. Le Havre's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/0.87 for Lorient.
How the model reaches 39% for Lorient to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lorient to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Le Havre's ratings add 10 points and Lorient's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Le Havre's ratings42%+10
- Lorient's ratings39%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Le Havre at home · Lorient away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Le HavreLorient
Le Havre are 18th after 7 Ligue 1 matches (between 14th and 18th so far); Lorient are 8th after 7 (between 5th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Le Havre 7, Lorient 7.
Le Havre score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Lorient have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Le Havre
- at Estac Troyes20 Nov · Ligue 1win 38%
- vs Strasbourg28 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
- at Lens5 Dec · Ligue 1win 17%
Lorient
- vs Rennes22 Nov · Ligue 1win 40%
- at Paris Saint Germain28 Nov · Ligue 1win 16%
- at Strasbourg5 Dec · Ligue 1win 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.