Everton
vs
Liverpool
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Everton 0–1 Liverpool
The model makes it 28% Everton, 27% draw, 45% Liverpool — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Everton 1.14, Liverpool 1.60.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Edge to Liverpool: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Everton's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Liverpool's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Everton are 6th on 16 points from 10 games; Liverpool are 4th on 18 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Everton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Coventry.
- Liverpool have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Crystal Palace.
- Last 6 meetings: Liverpool 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Everton 1–2 Liverpool.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Everton vs Liverpool
Has the model earned this number?
Liverpool at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Everton vs Liverpool
Everton
Premier League
- W3-1Coventry6 November 2026
- W1-0away to Newcastle2 November 2026
- L0-2away to Arsenal24 October 2026
- L0-2Chelsea17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Hull City11 October 2026
Liverpool
Premier League
- W3-1away to Crystal Palace8 November 2026
- L0-1Arsenal1 November 2026
- W2-0Brighton25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Brentford17 October 2026
- L0-3Manchester City11 October 2026
What these results say
- Everton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Liverpool conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Everton
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
Liverpool
Chance to finish in the top four · 64% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Everton vs Liverpool
Everton and Liverpool have met 6 times in the records we hold, Liverpool has won 4 of them to Everton's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Liverpool won the last one 2–1 on 19 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| Liverpool | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 19 Apr 2026
Premier LeagueEverton 1–2 Liverpool - 20 Sep 2025
Premier LeagueLiverpool 2–1 Everton - 2 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueLiverpool 1–0 Everton - 12 Feb 2025
Premier LeagueEverton 2–2 Liverpool - 24 Apr 2024
Premier LeagueEverton 2–0 Liverpool - 21 Oct 2023
Premier LeagueLiverpool 2–0 Everton
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Liverpool's attack rates 44% above Everton's, and Liverpool concede 11% fewer than Everton. That gives Liverpool the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Everton and Liverpool
Everton
GoalsAssists
- T. Barry61
- K. Dewsbury-Hall31
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- A. Isak70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Everton a 0.1% chance of the title and Liverpool 4.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Liverpool the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Everton against 1.60 for Liverpool. Everton's attack/defence rating is 0.93/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.34/0.77 for Liverpool.
How the model reaches 45% for Liverpool to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Liverpool to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Everton's ratings add 6 points and Liverpool's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Everton's ratings38%+6
- Liverpool's ratings45%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Everton at home · Liverpool away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
EvertonLiverpool
Everton are 6th after 10 Premier League matches (between 2nd and 9th so far); Liverpool are 4th after 10 (between 4th and 10th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Everton 10, Liverpool 10.
Everton score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Liverpool have let in 1 there.
Liverpool score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Everton have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Everton
- at Aston Villa2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Fulham6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Brighton13 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 18%
- at Nottingham Forest20 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Liverpool
- vs Sunderland2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 61%
- at Chelsea5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- vs FC Porto9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.