Regular Season - 12 · 28 November 2026, 20:30 UTC

Vitória SC vs Estrela Primeira Liga prediction

Our model says: Vitória SC 2–1 Estrela

The model makes it 47% Vitória SC, 26% draw, 27% Estrela — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Vitória SC 1.75, Estrela 1.21.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Vitória SC's rating is built from 45 Primeira Liga matches and Estrela's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 714 matches.

Key facts

  • Vitória SC are 14th on 9 points from 11 games; Estrela are 12th on 10 points from 11 games — Primeira Liga.
  • Vitória SC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC Porto.
  • Estrela have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Benfica.
  • Last 6 meetings: Vitória SC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Vitória SC 2–1 Estrela.

More Primeira Liga predictions

All Primeira Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Vitória SC vs Estrela

59%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Vitória SC win Draw Estrela win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Vitória SC first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Vitória SC at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Vitória SC vs Estrela

Vitória SC

Primeira Liga

  • L1-2FC Porto8 November 2026
  • D0-0away to GIL Vicente2 November 2026
  • W5-0Maritimo23 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Benfica11 October 2026
  • D1-1Moreirense20 September 2026

Estrela

Primeira Liga

  • L2-3Benfica8 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Moreirense31 October 2026
  • L0-2Casa Pia24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Arouca11 October 2026
  • L0-2Academico Viseu20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Vitória SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Estrela did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Estrela conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Vitória SC112361112-19
12Estrela112451722-510

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Vitória SC

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today

Win 6%
Draw 10%
Defeat 12%

Estrela

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today

Win 12%
Draw 16%
Defeat 21%

From our Primeira Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Estrela vs Vitória SC

Estrela and Vitória SC have met 6 times in the records we hold, Vitória SC has won 4 of them to Estrela's 1, with 1 drawn.

The record

Vitória SC won the last one 2–1 on 14 Feb 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Estrela114411
Vitória SC411114

Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 14 Feb 2026
    Primeira Liga    Vitória SC 2–1 Estrela
  • 14 Sep 2025
    Primeira Liga    Estrela 0–2 Vitória SC
  • 26 Jul 2025
    Friendlies Clubs    Vitória SC 0–1 Estrela
  • 16 Mar 2025
    Primeira Liga    Vitória SC 2–0 Estrela
  • 27 Oct 2024
    Primeira Liga    Estrela 2–2 Vitória SC
  • 21 Jan 2024
    Primeira Liga    Vitória SC 3–0 Estrela

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Estrela's attack rates 13% above Vitória SC's, and Vitória SC concede 28% fewer than Estrela. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Estrela0.941.41
Vitória SC0.831.02

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Vitória SC and Estrela

Vitória SC

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Estrela

GoalsAssists

  • L. Antonetti51
  • I. Stoica42
  • A. Marcus41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Estrela (12th, with Vitória SC 14th), while our numbers lean to Vitória SC. Vitória SC rate 0.83 in attack and 1.02 in defence, Estrela 0.94 and 1.41 (lower is better in defence), so Vitória SC have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Vitória SC Estrela
0.83 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.94
1.02 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.41
1.75 Model expected goals (this match) 1.21

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Vitória SC the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Vitória SC against 1.21 for Estrela. Vitória SC's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.41 for Estrela.

Vitória SC carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.66 for Estrela. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 47% for Vitória SC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vitória SC to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Vitória SC's ratings add 2 points and Estrela's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Vitória SC's ratings43%+2
  4. Estrela's ratings47%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Vitória SCEstrela
11Matches11
2W 3D 6LRecord2W 4D 5L
11 1.0 per gameGoals scored17 1.5 per game
12 1.1 per gameGoals conceded22 2.0 per game
4 of 11Clean sheets0 of 11
5 of 11Failed to score3 of 11
0 of 1Penalties scored1 of 2
29 2.6 per gameYellow cards24 2.2 per game
1Red cards0
4-2-3-1 11×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Vitória SC at home · Estrela away

6Played5
2W 2D 2LRecord1W 2D 2L
8–4Goals for – against9–10
3 of 6Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Primeira Liga matches this season: Vitória SC 11, Estrela 11.

Vitória SC scored 101134
Estrela conceded 522523

Vitória SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Estrela have let in 3 there.

Estrela scored 012662
Vitória SC conceded 122513

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Vitória SC

  • at Estoril6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 41%
  • vs Alverca13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 40%
  • at Santa Clara20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 26%
  • vs Rio Ave27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 54%
  • at Famalicao10 Jan · Primeira Ligawin 28%

Estrela

  • vs GIL Vicente6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 32%
  • at FC Porto13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 7%
  • vs Maritimo20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 52%
  • at Santa Clara27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 22%
  • vs Estoril10 Jan · Primeira Ligawin 48%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.