Paris Saint Germain
vs
Estac Troyes
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Paris Saint Germain 3–0 Estac Troyes
The model makes it 82% Paris Saint Germain, 12% draw, 6% Estac Troyes — fair odds of 1.22, 8.33 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 3.35, Estac Troyes 0.62.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,485 settled matches.
One-sided: Paris Saint Germain are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Paris Saint Germain's rating is built from 41 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Estac Troyes's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 679 matches.
Key facts
- Paris Saint Germain are 2nd on 14 points from 7 games; Estac Troyes are 17th on 4 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Paris Saint Germain are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Strasbourg.
- Estac Troyes have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Lens.
- Last 6 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 May 2023, ended Estac Troyes 1–3 Paris Saint Germain.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris Saint Germain at 82% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 368 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes
Paris Saint Germain
Ligue 1
- W3-1away to Strasbourg17 October 2026
- W3-1Le Mans10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Marseille20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Stade Brestois 2913 September 2026
- L1-2Monaco4 September 2026
Estac Troyes
Ligue 1
- L1-3Lens17 October 2026
- L0-2Marseille11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Angers19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Lille13 September 2026
- L2-6Strasbourg6 September 2026
What these results say
- Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estac Troyes did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Estac Troyes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 14 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain
Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain have met 6 times in the records we hold, Paris Saint Germain has won 5 of them to Estac Troyes's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
Paris Saint Germain won the last one 3–1 on 7 May 2023.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 7 May 2023
Ligue 1Estac Troyes 1–3 Paris Saint Germain - 29 Oct 2022
Ligue 1Paris Saint Germain 4–3 Estac Troyes - 8 May 2022
Ligue 1Paris Saint Germain 2–2 Estac Troyes - 7 Aug 2021
Ligue 1Estac Troyes 1–2 Paris Saint Germain - 3 Mar 2018
Ligue 1Estac Troyes 0–2 Paris Saint Germain - 29 Nov 2017
Ligue 1Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Estac Troyes
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 0.63 | 1.40 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.42 | 0.71 |
Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres41
- Marquinhos30
Estac Troyes
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Paris Saint Germain carry a model rating of 7.2 against 6.45 for Estac Troyes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.35 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.62 for Estac Troyes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paris Saint Germain rate 1.42 in attack and 0.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estac Troyes rate 0.63 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Paris Saint Germain a 59.1% chance of the title and Estac Troyes 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,189 correct results out of 4,550 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the highest probability at 82%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.35 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain against 0.62 for Estac Troyes. Paris Saint Germain's attack/defence rating is 1.42/0.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.4 for Estac Troyes.
How the model reaches 82% for Paris Saint Germain to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Paris Saint Germain to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Paris Saint Germain's ratings add 21 points and Estac Troyes's ratings add 19 points, which lands on the published 82%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Paris Saint Germain's ratings63%+21
- Estac Troyes's ratings82%+19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Paris Saint Germain at home · Estac Troyes away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Paris Saint GermainEstac Troyes
Paris Saint Germain are 2nd after 7 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 12th so far); Estac Troyes are 17th after 7 (between 2nd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Paris Saint Germain 7, Estac Troyes 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Paris Saint Germain
- at Nice21 Nov · Ligue 1win 58%
- vs AS Roma25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 37%
Estac Troyes
- vs Le Havre20 Nov · Ligue 1win 32%
- at Nice28 Nov · Ligue 1win 21%
- vs Lyon5 Dec · Ligue 1win 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.